2028 Presidential race: exact outcome | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

32 markets tracked

Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(32)

Market	Platform	Price
Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	11%
Will Gavin Newsom defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	11%
Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	7%
Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	6%
Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	4%
Will Kamala Harris defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will Jon Ossoff defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will Kamala Harris defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will JD Vance defeat Kamala Harris in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will Josh Shapiro defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will Josh Shapiro defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will Jon Ossoff defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will JD Vance defeat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will Andy Beshear defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	3%
Will Marco Rubio defeat Kamala Harris in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will JD Vance defeat Josh Shapiro in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will Marco Rubio defeat Jon Ossoff in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will JD Vance defeat Jon Ossoff in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will Marco Rubio defeat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will Pete Buttigieg defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will JD Vance defeat Pete Buttigieg in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will James Talarico defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will Marco Rubio defeat Josh Shapiro in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will Andy Beshear defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will JD Vance defeat Andy Beshear in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	2%
Will Marco Rubio defeat Pete Buttigieg in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	1%
Will Marco Rubio defeat James Talarico in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	1%
Will JD Vance defeat James Talarico in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	1%
Will James Talarico defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	1%
Will Marco Rubio defeat Andy Beshear in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, April 21, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2028 Presidential race: exact outcome
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2028

If X defeats Y 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Democratic Nominee, PRESNOM, Republican Nominee, PRESNOM, Presidential Winner, PRESPERSON. All conditions must be satisfied the 2028 p

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Marco Rubio defeats Pete Buttigieg in the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire cont"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Marco Rubio defeat Pete Buttigieg in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Pete Buttigieg defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will JD Vance defeat Pete Buttigieg in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Marco Rubio defeat Kamala Harris in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Kamala Harris defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will JD Vance defeat Kamala Harris in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Kamala Harris defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Marco Rubio defeat James Talarico in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will James Talarico defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will JD Vance defeat James Talarico in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will James Talarico defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with James Talarico as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Marco Rubio defeat Josh Shapiro in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Josh Shapiro defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will JD Vance defeat Josh Shapiro in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Josh Shapiro defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Josh Shapiro as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Marco Rubio defeat Jon Ossoff in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Jon Ossoff defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will JD Vance defeat Jon Ossoff in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Jon Ossoff defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Jon Ossoff as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Gavin Newsom defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Marco Rubio defeat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will JD Vance defeat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Marco Rubio defeat Andy Beshear in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Andy Beshear defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will JD Vance defeat Andy Beshear in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Andy Beshear defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Andy Beshear as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 20, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

3¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/Wcj5nV" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2028 Presidential race: exact outcome"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

Markets (32)

Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Will Gavin Newsom defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Will Gavin Newsom defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Will JD Vance defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Will Gavin Newsom defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Will Gavin Newsom defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

Will Gavin Newsom defeat Marco Rubio in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

Will Marco Rubio defeat Gavin Newsom in the 2028 presidential election, with Gavin Newsom as the Democratic nominee and Marco Rubio as the Republican nominee?

Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Will Pete Buttigieg defeat JD Vance in the 2028 presidential election, with Pete Buttigieg as the Democratic nominee and JD Vance as the Republican nominee?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget