Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T21:00:06.793Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract, "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET," resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-01T02:05:00.000Z [1]. The contract's rules therefore define the measurement window, but the listed end time is a close time, not a record of how the contract resolved. The supplied evidence does not include a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-31T21:00:06.793Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-31T21:32:28.166Z [1]. These are different times, and the prices describe the observation time only. The snapshot reports the contract's status as active at that point [1].
The saved prices are "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The 0.010 gap between them is small. The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and it does not show how many traders hold either side. Volume and liquidity are not included in the supplied data.
This sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because only this single contract is supplied, there is no cross-platform comparison to make here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the Chainlink TWAP values for the window, the beginning-of-range price, or the final result. It also does not confirm the market's status after the observation time. A price snapshot from 21:00 UTC should not be read as the price at the time of this writing or at the listed close.
Any comparison with a contract on another platform would need matching windows, price sources, and close times, since differences in wording or measurement could change what each contract pays out.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T21:00:06.793Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window crypto contract on Polymarket asking whether Ethereum will move up or down over a five-minute range from 10:00PM to 10:05PM ET on October 31. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum over that range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution data comes from Chainlink's ETH/USD TWAP data stream, so the contract depends on that feed rather than on other exchanges or spot markets [1]. The contract's wording makes a few distinctions that matter for reading it. The outcome is decided by an average over the window compared with a starting reference price, not by where the price sits at the final moment of the window. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-11-01T02:05:00Z [1]. That end time is the scheduled close of the contract's window and is not a record of when resolution occurred. The market data used here is a single snapshot. The provider observation time is 21:00:06Z on October 31, 2026, and the record was retrieved at 21:32:28Z the same day. At that observation, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the outcome. Because this is a single-market, single-event record, there is no comparison with other contracts or other events in this sample.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Ethereum's price over a short, defined window, as recorded by one specified data stream. Its rules compare the time-weighted average over the window with the price at the window's start, so the result reflects the average path of the price rather than a single closing print [1]. Because the rules name Chainlink's ETH/USD TWAP stream and exclude other sources, a reader needs to understand that stream's data, not general market headlines, to interpret the outcome [1]. The prices shown alongside the contract reflect what traders were offering at one observation time and do not by themselves indicate how the market will resolve [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Ethereum over the stated range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. If it is lower, the contract resolves Down [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The rules specify Chainlink's ETH/USD TWAP data stream. The contract says it is about that stream and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that Ethereum goes up?
The record lists Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 at one observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and the source does not establish them as verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.