Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers the window shown in its title, October 26, 11:10AM to 11:15AM ET [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over that range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-26T15:15:00.000Z [1]. Because the title gives the window in Eastern Time and the listed end time is in UTC, readers comparing timing should convert both to the same zone.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record was observed at 2026-10-25T18:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-25T20:50:04Z [1]. At observation, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000, so the recorded quotes sit close to even, with a 0.010 gap. This describes only the moment of observation. It does not show where the price stands now, and it should not be read as current.
The sample covers one market from one event on one platform. The coverage record lists one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. The provider notes that this does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. For a binary Up or Down contract, though, these two outcomes are the full set of listed results.
The saved evidence contains no volume figures, so it says nothing about liquidity or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are. It also contains no Hyperliquid price data for the window, so the outcome cannot be determined from this record. Readers comparing this contract with a similarly named market elsewhere should check the resolution wording, time window, data source, and listed close time. Differences in any of these mean the contracts are not directly comparable, and a price gap between different contracts does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window price contract on Polymarket titled Hyperliquid Up or Down, for the five-minute window from 11:10 AM to 11:15 AM ET on October 26. The contract asks whether the price of HYPE/USD over that window will finish at or above its starting level. The provider states that it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The contract is not settled on whichever spot exchange happens to show the lowest or highest price. The provider specifies that the market concerns the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream for the HYPE/USD pair, and not any other sources or spot markets [1]. The named stream is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval [1]. Because the outcome depends on an average over the window rather than a single trade, a brief move at the start or end of the window may affect the result differently than it would under a closing-price rule. The provider lists the contract's end time as 2026-10-26T15:15:00.000Z, which corresponds to the close of the stated window [1]. The listed end time is the time the contract closes according to the provider's rules. It is not evidence of when any particular outcome was confirmed or paid out.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of HYPE/USD over a short, defined window using a Chainlink TWAP. Its prices reflect market views on whether that averaged price will be at or above the starting price when the window ends [1]. Readers should not treat a price on this contract as a measure of Hyperliquid's broader outlook, since the question covers only the five minutes named in the title and the specified data stream [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the Chainlink TWAP of HYPE/USD across the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Does the price on other exchanges affect the outcome?
No. The provider says the market concerns only the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream for HYPE/USD, not any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract end?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-26T15:15:00.000Z [1]. This is the close of the contract's stated window, not a record of a completed outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.