Lorient vs Monaco: Second Half Spread
K 0 contracts
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Lorient vs Monaco: Second Half Spread
K 0 contracts
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
FCL vs ASM (Oct 18) If X win by more than 1.5 goals in the 2nd Half of the Lorient vs Monaco professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Lorient vs Monaco professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 18, 2026. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Only goals scored during the 2nd Half count towards this market. This market will close and expire after the half ends.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Kalshi event covers a Lorient vs Monaco Ligue 1 match originally scheduled for October 18, 2026. The rules state that a market resolves to Yes if a team wins "by more than 1.5 goals in the 2nd Half," and that "Only goals scored during the 2nd Half count towards this market" [1]. The two contracts are mirror images of the same margin test: one asks whether Lorient wins the second half by more than 1.5 goals, and the other asks the same about Monaco [1]. Readers should note that the rules also cover cancellation or rescheduling, in which case the market "will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules" [1]. The excerpt does not say whether the match has been played or rescheduled.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-17T10:23:00.542Z [1]. Both contracts show Yes at 0.49 and No at 0.51 in that snapshot [1]. These are recorded prices from a past moment, not current or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The listed contract end date is 2026-10-20T15:15:00.000Z for both markets [1]. This is a contract close field, not the match date or a confirmed event time. The event excerpt separately reports "Listed end time: not supplied," so the two sources do not give the same closing detail, and the rules say the market closes after the half ends [1].
Because the two contracts reference different teams, their prices should be read side by side as separate questions, not combined into a single estimate. The snapshot contains no other markets for this event.
What remains uncertain
Coverage is complete for this saved event: two of two markets were included and the sample is not marked partial [1]. The record also warns that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The snapshot therefore says nothing about outcomes such as a margin of 1.5 goals or fewer, and no price for them should be inferred.
Only one platform appears here, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Volume is not included in the excerpt, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many traders are involved. The price pattern does not explain itself, and the record gives no reason for it.
References
- Kalshi: Lorient vs Monaco: Second Half Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled "Lorient vs Monaco: Second Half Spread," which concerns a Ligue 1 soccer match listed as originally scheduled for October 18, 2026 [1]. The event contains two binary contracts. One asks whether Lorient wins the second half by more than 1.5 goals, and the other asks the same question for Monaco [1]. Each contract is framed as a "Yes" or "No" market. The contract rules state that the Lorient market resolves to Yes if Lorient wins the second half by more than 1.5 goals [1]. The rules also say that only goals scored during the second half count toward the market, so first-half scoring has no effect on the outcome [1]. The market is set to close and expire after the half ends [1]. The provider lists the event status as active [1]. The rules also address postponement. If the game is cancelled, or rescheduled to a time more than 48 hours away, the market will resolve to a fair price under the provider's rules [1]. The rules do not describe the fair-price method in the supplied material, so readers should check the provider's full rules before relying on that scenario. The saved market records show a Yes price of 0.49 and a No price of 0.51 for the Lorient contract, and the same Yes and No prices for the Monaco contract. These are point-in-time snapshots from the saved record. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of either team winning the second half by the stated margin. Each market record also lists an end date of October 20, 2026 at 15:15 UTC. That field is part of the saved record and is not an announced match or resolution time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow, specific outcome: whether one team wins the second half by a margin greater than 1.5 goals [1]. Because only second-half goals count, the contract is separate from the full-match result and from first-half scoring [1]. Readers who want to understand the contract should focus on three rule details: the 1.5-goal threshold, the second-half-only scoring window, and the postponement or cancellation clause that moves the market to a fair-price resolution [1]. Prices shown on the event reflect market activity at the time of the snapshot and do not, by themselves, indicate how the match will finish.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the Lorient market to resolve to Yes?
Lorient must win the second half of the match by more than 1.5 goals [1].
Do goals scored in the first half count toward these contracts?
No. The rules state that only goals scored during the second half count toward the market [1].
When does the market close?
The rules say the market will close and expire after the half ends [1].
What happens if the match is cancelled or rescheduled?
If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the provider's rules [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
