BNB Up or Down - October 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
PM $0
1
1
BNB Up or Down - October 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market is titled "BNB Up or Down - October 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET." Its rules state that it "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T15:45:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time uses UTC. The evidence does not state a conversion, so readers should check the time zone themselves. The provider status is recorded as active [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z and retrieved at 2026-10-31T05:17:15.603Z [1]. These are different moments, and neither is a live price. The quoted prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These figures are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because the two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this snapshot, the Up price is higher than the Down price by 0.01 at the observation time.
The sample contains one market from one provider event, and the coverage record shows all saved markets for that event were included [1]. The record also states that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Here, the only possible outcomes are the two contract sides, so no omitted outcome affects this reading. No volume or trader information is included, and volume would not indicate liquidity or the number of participants in any case.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and this analysis does not offer a reason. It also provides no other platform's version of this contract, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. A different platform's price for a similar-looking contract may have different wording, resolution sources, or closing times, and those differences matter more than any price gap.
The snapshot is from a moment before the retrieval time, and the evidence contains no later price. Whether the contract resolves Up or Down cannot be determined from this record.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price market for BNB, a crypto asset, titled "BNB Up or Down - October 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET". It asks whether BNB's price over a 15-minute window ends up or down relative to where the window began. According to the provider, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-31T15:45:00.000Z [1]. The resolution source is specified as Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. This matters because a BNB price quoted on a different exchange or data feed could differ from the figure used for settlement. The contract therefore measures a specific averaged data series over a specific window, not a general view of BNB's price. The saved snapshot for this event shows two outcomes: "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These values were observed at 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z, which is before the listed window opens, so they describe the market at that earlier moment only. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the outcome. The saved event contains one market, and it is the only market included in this sample [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of a time-weighted average price over one 15-minute window, using a single named data stream as the reference [1]. Because the comparison is between the average over the window and the price at the window's start, the result depends on how the averaged price moves relative to that opening level rather than on where BNB ends the window. Anyone reading the contract should check the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP stream named in the rules, since that is the only source the provider says will be used [1]. The listed end time of 2026-10-31T15:45:00.000Z marks when the window closes [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves "Up" if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, and "Down" otherwise [1]. The average is taken from Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1].
Which price data is used for settlement?
The provider specifies the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and states that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that BNB goes up?
The saved prices were "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 at the observation time [1]. These are snapshots from a moment before the window opened. They are not executable quotes and are not verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a confirmed chance of either outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
How high will BNB get in October?
K 106.0K contracts
How low will BNB get in October?
K 10.0K contracts
BNB Up or Down - October 31, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
PM $0BNB Up or Down - October 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
PM $0BNB Up or Down - October 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
PM $0BNB Up or Down - October 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.