Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract asks whether the Chainlink time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid will be at or above the price at the start of the stated window. The rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a spot price chart or another exchange's quote should expect different measurement rules.
The title gives the window as "October 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET," while the listed end time is "2026-10-20T01:45:00.000Z" [1]. The two timestamps use different formats and time zones, so readers should check both when planning around the close.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot shows two outcomes: Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. The provider observation time is 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T04:19:58.913Z [1]. These are the times to use when describing this data. The prices describe the market at the observation time and are not a live quote.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because only one market is included, the sample is complete for this event, but it does not show whether other related contracts exist.
Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved data contains no volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each view. The small gap between Up and Down is a single observed reading.
What remains uncertain
The status at retrieval was "active" and no resolution appears in the evidence [1]. The saved prices are from earlier than the retrieval time, so they should not be treated as current.
The evidence does not explain why prices stood where they did. No other platform's contract is included here, so no cross-platform comparison or arbitrage conclusion can be drawn from this data.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window price contract on Polymarket titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET." The contract asks whether the price of HYPE/USD, measured as a time-weighted average price (TWAP) over a five-minute window, finishes at or above its starting level. The provider's rules state that the market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP for the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules specify that only this Chainlink data stream counts, not other sources or spot markets [1]. A contract built this way depends on how the averaged price behaves across the window, not on the closing price alone, and on the exact data feed named in the rules. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T01:45:00Z [1]. The title's 9:40PM to 9:45PM ET window corresponds to the same closing point, so the rules and title line up on timing. The market information here was observed at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T04:19:58Z [1]. The listed end time is a contract closing time, not a record of when the market resolved, and the provider's status shown here is a snapshot from the observation time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the HYPE/USD price, averaged over time using the Chainlink TWAP data stream, is at or above the price at the start of the stated five-minute window [1]. Because the outcome depends on a time-weighted average rather than a single trade, short-term spikes near the start or end of the window affect the result differently than they would in a point-in-time comparison. The rules also limit resolution to that one data feed, so other exchanges or spot prices do not decide the outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules say the market is about that data stream and not about other sources or spot markets [1].
When does this contract close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T01:45:00Z, which matches the 9:45PM ET end of the window in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.