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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Name: Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$30.24K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?

Vol

$30.24K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $30.24K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $30.24K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Poly	99%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?	Poly	98%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?	Poly	83%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?	Poly	71%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$30.24K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of resignations or firings will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of resignations or firings will not alone qualify. 

The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $30.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $22.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.36)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $11.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $10.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics