California vs NC St.: Spread
K 40.8K contracts
1
31
California vs NC St.: Spread
K 40.8K contracts
1
31
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is NC St. wins by over 1.5 points at 67.5%.
Kalshi
- NC St. wins by over 1.5 points67.5%
- NC St. wins by over 2.5 points65.5%
- NC St. wins by over 3.5 points60.5%
- NC St. wins by over 4.5 points58.5%
- NC St. wins by over 5.5 points56.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 40.8K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
31
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
CAL vs NCST (Oct 31) If NC St. wins by more than X points in the California vs NC St. college football game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event "California vs NC St.: Spread" concerns a college football game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026 [1]. Each market asks whether NC St.'s winning margin exceeds a stated threshold. The rules say, "If NC St. wins by more than X points in the California vs NC St. college football game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1].
The rules also cover postponement. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, "the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result." If it is not started within 48 hours, "the market will resolve to a fair price" [1]. The market "will close and expire after the event occurs" [1]. The provider's listed end time is not supplied, so the close time cannot be read from the event date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T00:53:07.239Z [1]. These are records of past data, not live quotes or executable prices.
The sample is partial. It includes 12 of 31 markets from this one Kalshi event [1]. Within the included markets, Yes prices decline as the threshold rises. The "over 1.5 points" market shows Yes at 0.685, the "over 6.5 points" market shows 0.54, and the "over 14.5 points" market shows 0.30 [1]. The 19 omitted thresholds are not shown, so nothing can be concluded about their prices.
Each listed market has an end date of 2026-11-02T16:00:00.000Z [1]. That differs from the Oct 31 game date in the title, and the supplied evidence does not explain the difference.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why prices sit where they do, how many traders hold positions, or how liquid these markets are. Volume data is not supplied for this interpretation.
The excerpt does not report the game's current status, any postponement, or any final result. Prices may have changed since the observation time.
No other platform's contracts are included, so these prices should not be compared with or averaged against other providers' markets. Differences in wording, thresholds, or close timing would need to be checked against each contract's own rules first.
References
- Kalshi: California vs NC St.: Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a spread market on the college football game between California and NC State, listed on Kalshi as "California vs NC St.: Spread" [1]. Each market in the event asks whether NC State wins by more than a stated number of points. The saved event includes thresholds from over 1.5 points up to over 14.5 points [1]. Under the contract rules, if NC State wins by more than X points in the game originally scheduled for October 31, 2026, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules also address postponement. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original start time, the market stays open and resolves based on the official final result. If the game has not started within 48 hours, the market resolves to a fair price [1]. The provider states that the market closes and expires after the event occurs [1]. The October 31 date appears in the contract rules and title, so it describes the originally scheduled date rather than a confirmed playing date. The saved event contains 31 markets, and 12 are included in this sample. Inclusion is based on the highest finite Yes price first, then volume [1]. Within the sampled thresholds, the Yes price in the snapshot falls from 0.685 for over 1.5 points to 0.300 for over 14.5 points [1]. These figures are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The 19 markets not included are not described here, so the sample should not be read as the full set of thresholds. The supplied Wikipedia pages cover the 2026 Syracuse Orange and Florida State Seminoles football teams [2][3]. They do not describe California or NC State, so they add no information about this matchup.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the margin of NC State's victory over California in the game as the event is defined. Each market has a single threshold, and it resolves Yes only if NC State wins by more than that number of points [1]. Because the event lists several thresholds, the set of markets shows how the Yes price changes across margins within the sampled snapshot [1]. Traders can read these prices as the market's pricing at the observation time, but the saved prices are snapshots and do not establish the likelihood of any result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When does a market resolve to Yes?
A market resolves to Yes if NC State wins by more than the threshold stated in that market, such as over 1.5 or over 7.5 points, in the game originally scheduled for October 31, 2026 [1].
What happens if the game is postponed?
If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official final result. If it does not start within 48 hours, the market resolves to a fair price [1].
Is Kalshi affiliated with the NCAA?
The contract rules state that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA [1].
Are the prices in this article current?
The prices come from a snapshot observed at 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z. They reflect that observation time and may not match prices at a later time [1].
Does the price sample include every threshold in the event?
No. The sample includes 12 of the 31 markets in the saved Kalshi event, so it is a partial sample [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
