MA-01 House Election Winner
PM $56.2K
1
2
MA-01 House Election Winner
PM $56.2K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Richard Neal (D) at 97%.
Polymarket
- Richard Neal (D)97%
- Republican Party2.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $56.2K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Polymarket event asks which party will win the MA-01 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections, which the source says will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. The sample contains two binary contracts: whether the Democratic Party wins the seat and whether the Republican Party wins it [1]. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that time [1].
Resolution depends on "a consensus of credible reporting." If there is ambiguity, the market resolves on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not an actual resolution. The rules tie resolution to when the elections are called, so the listed end time should not be read as the date the outcome is known.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:46:54.570Z [1]. These values describe that observation window only and are not live quotes. The Democratic contract's Yes price was 0.955, and the Republican contract's Yes price was 0.027 [1]. At the observation time, the Democratic contract was priced well above the Republican contract.
The two Yes prices sum to 0.982 in this snapshot, not 1. This difference should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity. The evidence does not include bid and ask levels, depth, or fees, so it cannot show whether any price was executable. The prices are also not verified probabilities.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes two of two saved markets for this event and is not marked as partial [1]. The provider notes that its saved markets do not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed, so this sample should not be read as the full field [1]. Only one source is supplied, so this analysis does not compare other platforms or contract wordings. The evidence does not explain why prices reached these levels, and it contains no information about developments after the observation time.
References
- Polymarket: MA-01 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers the Polymarket contract titled MA-01 House Election Winner. The contract is tied to the 2026 midterm election for the U.S. House seat in Massachusetts's 1st congressional district (MA-01). It resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins that seat [1]. The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. The provider lists the event as active, with a listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The contract does not name a candidate. It asks which party will hold the seat. The provider's rules say a candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is treated as a member of one of those parties, based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that same point [1]. The provider also states how the outcome will be determined. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the contract resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The Massachusetts state legislative race on the same date is a separate election. A supplied Wikipedia page describes the 2026 Massachusetts House of Representatives election, which covers all 160 state legislative districts and is held alongside the federal races [2]. That page does not establish the outcome or candidates for MA-01, so it should not be read as part of this contract's resolution basis.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which major party will hold the MA-01 U.S. House seat after the 2026 midterm election. It is written as two separate listings, one for the Democratic Party and one for the Republican Party, under the same event [1]. Each listing describes a yes or no outcome on whether that party wins the seat. Because the rules assign independents to a party based on ballot labeling or caucus intent, the contract concerns party control of the seat rather than any specific individual's victory [1]. Users should read the full provider rules for definitions and edge cases, since the contract depends on when races are conclusively called and which sources are used.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the MA-01 House Election Winner contract resolve on?
It resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-01 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1].
When is the election that this contract depends on?
The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026 [1].
How is a candidate's party determined?
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is assigned to a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that time [1].
What happens if the result is ambiguous?
If there is ambiguity, the contract resolves solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Is the listed end time the same as the resolution date?
The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules tie resolution to when the House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources, so the listed end time should be read as the provider's listing rather than a guaranteed resolution moment [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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