Bitcoin above ___ on November 2?
PM $13.7K
1
11
Bitcoin above ___ on November 2?
PM $13.7K
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 70,000 at 99.4%.
Polymarket
- 70,00099.4%
- 72,00099.3%
- 74,00098.3%
- 76,00095.2%
- 78,00087.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $13.7K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event asks whether Bitcoin will be above a stated price on November 2 [1]. The saved rules say the market resolves "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title [1]. Otherwise it resolves "No" [1]. The resolution source is Binance, and the rules state that other exchanges and trading pairs do not apply [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-02T17:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules describe the candle in ET, while the listed end time is given in UTC, so readers should check both when comparing contracts.
Reading the snapshot
The saved sample includes 11 price thresholds from $70,000 to $90,000, all from one provider event [1]. The sample is marked as not partial, meaning all saved markets for this event are included [1]. The source also notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1].
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T02:36:15.136Z [1]. These are past times for this record, not live prices.
Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The $70,000 contract shows Yes at 0.987, the $80,000 contract at 0.51, and the $90,000 contract at 0.0195 [1]. Each Yes and No pair sums to 1 in the snapshot. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The snapshot does not include trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders, so it cannot show depth or consensus.
Because all rows come from one event on one platform, no cross-platform comparison is possible here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit at these levels, and it does not show whether they have changed since retrieval. It contains no recent news, no later snapshot, and no record of how this event resolved. It also offers no information about how similar markets have performed historically. Price differences between thresholds reflect the stated contracts only and do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity. Readers should check the current contract page and rules before relying on any figure.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin above ___ on November 2?. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks whether Bitcoin's price will be above a stated threshold on November 2, 2026. The question is narrower than "where is Bitcoin trading?" because it is settled by one specific price observation. Under the contract rules, it resolves to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT that closes at 12:00 ET (noon) on the date in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the threshold in the title. Otherwise it resolves to "No" [1]. The resolution source is Binance's BTC/USDT market, and the rules state that prices from other exchanges or trading pairs do not count [1]. The rules also say that price precision follows the number of decimal places shown by the source [1]. The provider lists the event's end time as 2026-11-02T17:00:00 UTC [1]. That date appears in the contract rules as a closing time. It is not a separately announced event, and it does not show what the price will be. The contract is one of several threshold markets grouped under the same event. Each market uses the same resolution rule and differs only in its price threshold. The saved event includes all of its markets, so no threshold has been left out of this sample. That does not mean the provider lists every possible outcome, so readers should treat the sample as the set of markets saved for this event rather than a complete range of possible prices.
Historical Context
Bitcoin is described as a cryptocurrency that uses cryptography to control its creation and management instead of relying on central authorities [2]. It was originally designed as a medium of exchange, but it is now primarily regarded as a store of value [2]. One source says bitcoin was invented in 2008 and that use of it as a currency began in 2009 with the release of its open-source implementation [3]. From the mid-2010s, some businesses began accepting bitcoin alongside traditional currencies [2]. The same source notes that from 2021 to 2025 El Salvador adopted bitcoin as legal tender before revoking that status, and that several countries have banned it [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single observed price for Bitcoin against Binance's BTC/USDT market at one moment on the stated date. Because it uses one 1 minute candle close, the outcome depends on that narrow measurement rather than an average over time or a price from another exchange [1]. Readers should not treat the contract's price as a forecast of Bitcoin's value. Prices reflect trading in the contract, and they are not verified probabilities or executable quotes. The volume of trades in a market also does not indicate how many people took part or how easily positions can be bought or sold.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price source decides this contract?
The resolution source is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices for the 1 minute candle. The rules say prices from other exchanges or trading pairs do not count [1].
Which candle is used to decide the outcome?
The contract uses the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT that closes at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date in the title. It resolves to "Yes" if that candle's final Close is higher than the threshold in the title [1].
Does a listed end time mean the event has happened or been announced?
No. The provider lists the end time as 2026-11-02T17:00:00 UTC [1]. That date is part of the contract rules and does not indicate an announced event or the outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.