Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET," is listed on Polymarket [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with a Bitcoin contract on another platform should check whether the data stream, time window, and comparison rule match, because small wording differences change what is being priced.
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T08:30:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time. It does not show when the window was evaluated or when a result was determined, and the supplied evidence contains no resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T11:07:34.056Z [1]. The prices below describe the observation, not a live quote at the time you read this.
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495
These are snapshot prices for the two outcomes of one binary market. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence includes no volume or depth data, so it cannot describe liquidity or the number of participants.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. Because this is a single binary contract, there are no other outcomes to compare against, and no cross-platform comparison can be drawn from this evidence.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain what produced these prices. It also does not provide the Bitcoin price at the start of the window, the window's TWAP, or the final resolution. The snapshot records the provider status as "active" at observation time [1], but it does not establish the status today. Check the live provider page before relying on any figure here.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Bitcoin price contract listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET." The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over one 15-minute window. The provider lists the category as Crypto and the status as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-27T08:30:00.000Z [1]. The outcome is decided by a time-weighted average price (TWAP) rather than a single price at one moment. According to the rules, the contract resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink TWAP for Bitcoin over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the comparison uses an average across the window, the result depends on the whole interval, not only its final moment. The rules name a specific resolution feed: the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, with a 60-second averaging interval [1]. The provider states that only this Chainlink data stream governs the result, not other data sources or spot markets [1]. A trader reading the price of a Bitcoin exchange, for example, would not by itself determine the outcome under these rules. The listing shows two outcomes, Up and Down, and both are included in the saved record for this event [1]. The price figures attached to the listing are a snapshot taken at the observation time. They are not executable quotes, they are not verified probabilities, and the volume figure does not measure liquidity or the number of participants.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a fixed 15-minute window, as recorded by one named oracle feed. Its wording makes three points clear. The window is defined by the title, 4:15AM to 4:30AM Eastern Time on October 27 [1]. The reference price is the TWAP from Chainlink's BTC/USD stream, and the comparison is between that average and the price at the start of the range [1]. The provider's rules also limit resolution to that feed, so the contract is not a general forecast of Bitcoin's market price [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used for resolution?
The rules name the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second averaging interval. The provider says other sources and spot markets are not used for this market [1].
When is the listed end time?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-27T08:30:00.000Z, which is the close of the 4:15AM to 4:30AM ET window named in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.