Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

Total Volume

$577.75K

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How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

Vol

$577.75K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $577.75K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $577.75K

100%

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7 markets tracked

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?	Kalshi	4%
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?	Kalshi	4%
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,000 MW?	Kalshi	4%
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 93,000 MW?	Kalshi	3%
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 96,000 MW?	Kalshi	3%
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 94,000 MW?	Kalshi	3%
Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 98,000 MW?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$577.75K

Volume

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About This Event

2026 If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above X MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s preliminary peak-demand figures may change during the settlement process. Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT. X market may resolve Yes early once an official settled 2026

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026

If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above X MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s preliminary peak-demand figures may change during the settlement process. Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT. X market may resolve Yes early once an official settled 2026 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 93,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered.

ERCOT’s prelimin"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $577.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 93,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $54.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $75.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $141.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 98,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $40.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 96,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $45.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 94,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $86.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,000 MW?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $135.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

Volume$577.75K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?

If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 92,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s prelimin

KALSHI

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?

If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 91,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s prelimin

KALSHI

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,000 MW?

If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 92,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s prelimin

KALSHI

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 93,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 93,000 MW?

If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 93,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s prelimin

KALSHI

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 96,000 MW?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 96,000 MW?

If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 96,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s prelimin

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How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

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Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?

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Events (1)

How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

Markets (7)

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,000 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,000 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 93,000 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 93,000 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 96,000 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 96,000 MW?

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Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,500 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 91,500 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,000 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 92,000 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 93,000 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 93,000 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 96,000 MW?

Will integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during 2026 get above 96,000 MW?

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