GA-09 House Election Winner
PM $60.3K
1
2
GA-09 House Election Winner
PM $60.3K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Andrew Clyde (R) at 96.7%.
Polymarket
- Andrew Clyde (R)96.7%
- Caitlyn Gegen (D)2.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $60.3K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The source is a Polymarket event titled "GA-09 House Election Winner" [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections" [1]. The rules also say the midterm elections "will take place on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is a date stated in the contract text, not a separate announcement of an event schedule.
The party is determined by a candidate's "ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation" when all 2026 House elections are "conclusively called" by the resolution sources [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is assigned to a party based on which party they "most recently expressed their intent to caucus with" at that time [1]. Resolution follows "a consensus of credible reporting," and if there is ambiguity, it uses "the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T09:55:56.188Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only, not live trading now. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the provider's listed close time, and it is not the same as the date of the election or the time results are finalized.
Two markets are included. The Republican market quotes Yes at 0.9655 and No at 0.0345. The Democratic market quotes Yes at 0.0295 and No at 0.9705 [1]. Within each market, the Yes and No prices sum to 1.0. Across the two markets, the Yes prices sum to 0.995. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the gap from 1.0 should not be read as a trading opportunity or as evidence of any particular view.
The sample covers all saved markets for this single provider event, with 2 of 2 included and no partial sample flag [1]. The saved record says it "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because only one platform is present, no cross-platform comparison is possible here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels, and it does not report trader counts, liquidity, or recent news. Volume is not included in the reading above because volume is not liquidity or a count of participants. The evidence also does not show how the election will turn out. Readers should check the resolution language, especially the caucus rule for non-major-party candidates and the fallback to FEC results, before relying on the contract wording.
References
- Polymarket: GA-09 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market is a party-based contract on the winner of the GA-09 seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. It is tied to the 2026 midterm elections, which the rules say will take place on November 3, 2026 [1]. Rather than asking which candidate wins, the contract asks which party the winning candidate belongs to. Each contract in this event pays out on one party outcome, so the two contracts are the Republican Party and the Democratic Party for this seat [1]. The rules describe how a party is determined. A candidate's party is based on the ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either major party is assigned a party based on the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at that time [1]. The rules state that resolution is based on the result as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, resolution relies solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1]. The listed end time in the saved provider data is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That is the contract's listed closing time, not the date the outcome is determined or paid out. Under the rules, resolution depends on when the House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources [1]. The saved snapshot shows the event as active and includes both party contracts. Prices in that snapshot are observations from a specific moment and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party will hold the GA-09 House seat after the 2026 midterm elections, as determined under the resolution rules [1]. Because it is framed by party rather than by individual candidate, the rules spell out how a candidate's party is assigned, including the caucus-based fallback for candidates without a major-party ballot listing [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check those definitions, the timing of when the House race is called, and the resolution sources named in the rules, since these determine the outcome that matters for payout [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the election that this contract depends on?
The rules say the 2026 midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026, and the GA-09 contract resolves based on the result of that election [1].
How is the winning party determined?
The party is based on the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources. A candidate without a major-party ballot listing is assigned the party with which they most recently expressed an intent to caucus at that time [1].
What sources decide resolution?
Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the rules say resolution relies solely on official results reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission [1].
Does the listed end time mean the outcome is known by then?
No. The listed end time in the saved data is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. The rules tie resolution to when the House elections are conclusively called, so the listed time should not be read as the date the result is announced or paid out [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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