2Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?
K 573.73 contracts
1
15
2Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?
K 573.73 contracts
1
15
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 4.46% or above at 94%.
Kalshi
- 4.46% or above94%
- 4.48% or above93.5%
- 4.5% or above92.5%
- 4.52% or above90.5%
- 4.54% or above87%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 573.73 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
15
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 2, 2026 If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 2, 2026, or one week following Nov 2, 2026.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks whether the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury will be above a stated threshold on Nov 2, 2026. Under the rules, "If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each listed market uses a different threshold, from 4.45% to 4.67% in the included sample. The rules also state that "The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 2, 2026, or one week following Nov 2, 2026." [1] The source gives the provider status as active but does not supply a listed end time for the event, so the per-market end timestamps should be read as provider data only. [1]
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z and retrieved at 2026-10-31T09:14:25.425Z. [1] These times describe when the data was captured. They do not make the figures live, and the prices are not executable quotes. Quoted Yes prices run from 0.94 at the 4.45% threshold down to 0.105 at the 4.67% threshold, so the price falls as the threshold rises. [1] Every included market lists the same end timestamp, 2026-11-04T06:05:00.000Z. [1] That timestamp is a provider field and does not replace the expiry wording in the rules.
Because each contract asks a different question, compare prices threshold by threshold. A gap between two contracts with different thresholds does not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The sample is partial. The provider event contains 15 markets, and 12 are included. [1] The selection keeps up to 12 markets ordered by Yes price, so the three omitted markets are not shown and their prices are not in the evidence. Do not assume they sit above or below the displayed range. The evidence does not explain why prices are at their current levels, and it does not report trader counts or liquidity. Volume is not a measure of either. No resolution outcome appears in the evidence, and the contract resolves only after the Nov 2 data release described in the rules. [1]
References
- Kalshi: 2Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event titled "2Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?", which is listed in the Financials category. The contract asks whether the par yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury will be above a specified threshold X on November 2, 2026. If it is, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The event is categorized as active with the provider [1]. The 2-year Treasury is one point on the yield curve. A yield curve shows the relationship between yields and time to maturity for a set of comparable debt securities, and the term usually refers to a curve built from a single issuer or market segment, such as the U.S. Treasury curve for government bonds [2]. A 2-year yield therefore reflects the return on one maturity within that broader government bond curve. The contract does not ask about the whole curve, the 10-year yield, or any other maturity. The provider's rules say the market closes at the sooner of two times: the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for November 2, 2026, or one week after November 2, 2026 [1]. The rules describe that timing mechanism, but the supplied event does not list a separate end time, so no specific closing time beyond these rules should be assumed [1]. The market-level end date in the saved sample is 2026-11-04T06:05:00Z [1]. That date is a field in the saved record, not an announced event date, and it should be read alongside the closing rule rather than treated as the moment the yield is measured. The saved sample contains 12 of 15 threshold markets from this one event, ordered by the highest Yes price first [1]. Thresholds in the sample run from 4.45% to 4.67%. At the observation time of 2026-10-31T09:00:05Z, the Yes price was 0.94 for the 4.45% threshold and 0.105 for the 4.67% threshold [1]. The Yes prices fall as the threshold rises, which matches the contract structure, since a higher bar is harder to clear. These are snapshot prices from the provider, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the sample is partial, the three omitted thresholds should not be assumed to carry any particular price.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the par yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury, as defined by the provider's rules, lands above a chosen level on a single date [1]. It is a yes or no question about one maturity on one day. Because the 2-year yield is one point on the Treasury yield curve, the contract connects to the broader idea of how yields vary across maturities [2]. Each threshold market in the event asks the same question at a different level, so the set of prices gives a snapshot of how the provider's participants priced different outcomes at one observation time [1]. Those prices are not verified probabilities, and the volume or number of traders behind them is not identified in the supplied record.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract resolve on?
The market resolves to Yes if the par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is above the stated threshold X on November 2, 2026 [1].
When does the market expire?
According to the provider's rules, it expires at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for November 2, 2026, or one week following November 2, 2026 [1]. The supplied event does not list a separate end time.
What does the 2-year Treasury yield represent?
A yield curve shows the relationship between yields and time to maturity for comparable debt securities, and the U.S. Treasury curve is an example [2]. The 2-year yield is one maturity point on that curve.
What do the prices in the sample mean?
The prices are snapshots taken at 2026-10-31T09:00:05Z from the provider's saved event [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the sample includes only 12 of 15 thresholds [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
