Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET" [1]. Its rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The rules name the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream," not other sources or spot markets [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-22T14:35:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a record of when resolution occurred. The evidence does not show a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-22T02:39:04.793Z [1]. Both times are earlier than the current request time, so these prices describe that saved snapshot only and should not be read as live quotes. The contract shows status "active" in the saved data [1].
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The evidence contains no volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, with 1 of 1 markets included and no partial sample [1]. Because there is only one contract here, no comparison with other markets or platforms is supported.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did. It also does not include the Chainlink TWAP values for the time window or the price at the window's start, so the outcome cannot be determined from the material provided.
Other platforms may list contracts with different wording, windows, or close times. Those differences matter, and a price gap between differently worded contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without checking the rules.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval Bitcoin price contract on Polymarket, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET" and listed in the Crypto category. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a five-minute window. According to the provider's rules, the market "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1]. In plain terms, the outcome depends on whether the average price across the window ends at or above the price at its start. The resolution source is named in the rules as Chainlink, specifically its BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second averaging setting [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. That distinction matters: a trader reading prices on an exchange or a different data feed may see movements that do not determine this contract's result. The saved event lists an end time of 2026-10-22T14:35:00Z [1], which corresponds to the 10:35 AM ET end of the title's window. This is the contract's listed closing time. The source excerpt does not show the resolved outcome, so this entry does not say which side won. The saved market snapshot shows the Up outcome at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495, with the observation taken at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. These are snapshot prices from the provider record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved event contains only this one market, so the two outcomes shown are the full set for this record.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a defined five-minute window, as recorded by a specific Chainlink data feed [1]. Because the outcome compares a time-weighted average over the window with the starting price, it does not simply track the closing price at the end of the window. The rules also specify that only the named Chainlink feed counts, so the contract is a narrow measure of that feed rather than a general view of Bitcoin's market price [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this market resolve to Up?
The market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin from Chainlink over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The rules specify Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and state that other sources or spot markets are not used for resolution [1].
What does the listed end time mean?
The saved event lists an end time of 2026-10-22T14:35:00Z [1]. This is the scheduled closing time shown in the provider record, and the excerpt does not report a resolved outcome.
Do the prices shown represent what a trader could buy at now?
The Up and Down prices of 0.505 and 0.495 come from a provider snapshot observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z [1]. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.