BNB Up or Down - October 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract, "BNB Up or Down - October 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET," resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a spot price chart or another platform's BNB contract should check that the reference source matches, because a different feed or averaging method could produce a different outcome.
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z [1]. The title's window ends at 6:00 AM ET, so the reader should treat the listed end time as the contract's closing reference and not assume it matches the title's wording without checking the time zone.
Reading the snapshot
The saved sample contains one market with two outcomes. The Up contract was priced at 0.505 and the Down contract at 0.495 [1]. These figures are snapshots taken when the provider data was observed, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the evidence does not explain it.
Timing matters here. The provider data was observed at 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z and retrieved by PredictPedia at 2026-10-24T14:59:03.140Z [1]. The status recorded at retrieval was "active" [1]. Because the observation is several hours before the retrieval time, the prices describe the market at the observation point, not necessarily at the time you read this summary. The contract had not closed when the snapshot was taken, and the evidence does not show a resolution.
What remains uncertain
The sample is complete for this event. It contains all saved markets for the event, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. However, the sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. For a binary contract, the two listed outcomes cover the resolution rule as written, but no other platform's contract is included here, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differing prices across contracts with different wording, sources, or close times should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity. The evidence provides no volume, liquidity, or trader data, so none is assessed here.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-window price contract on BNB, listed on Polymarket under the title "BNB Up or Down - October 25, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET" [1]. It belongs to the crypto category and asks whether BNB's price moves up or down over a fifteen-minute interval. The listed outcomes are "Up" and "Down" [1]. The rule is based on a time-weighted average price rather than a single trade. According to the source, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the comparison uses an average over the window, a brief spike at the start or end of the interval does not decide the outcome on its own. The resolution source is named in the rules as Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The source states that the market is about the price according to that Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not according to any other sources or spot markets [1]. A trader therefore needs to read the contract's specific data feed, not general BNB prices quoted elsewhere. The listed end time in the source is 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z, and the provider status at retrieval was active [1]. The title's Eastern Time window is the stated timing basis for the contract. The date in these rules describes when the contract is scheduled to close, not an announced event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BNB/USD time-weighted average price over a fifteen-minute window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Its value depends on the stated data stream and the stated rule, so the contract asks a narrow question about one feed rather than a broad question about BNB. Anyone reading a price for this contract should check the rule text first, because the same asset measured by a different feed or a point-in-time price could give a different result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an Up outcome require?
According to the rule, the market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink TWAP of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price feed decides the result?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the market is about that feed rather than any other sources or spot markets [1].
When is the contract scheduled to end?
The source lists the end time as 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z, and the provider status was active when the source was retrieved [1]. That is a contract closing time, not evidence of a separate announced event.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.