Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T03:00:06.103Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market is titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET" [1]. The source states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the source notes that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1]
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T02:55:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's listed close time. The evidence does not show an actual resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-27T03:00:06.103Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-27T06:04:08.602Z, about three hours later [1]. Both timestamps describe a past capture, not live trading. The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. In this record the two prices total 1.000, so the gap between them is 0.010.
The sample covers one saved market from one provider event, and the record does not flag a partial sample [1]. Because only these two outcomes appear, there is no other contract in this record to compare against. The record also does not include trading volume or liquidity, so it does not show how easily these prices could be traded.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Up and Down prices sit where they do, and it does not show how they changed over time, since only one observation is saved. It also does not show the Bitcoin price path during the window or the price at the start of the range, which determine the outcome under the stated rules [1]. The source states that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome," so this record should not be read as the full field of outcomes for this question [1]. Readers who need a later status should check the provider page and the Chainlink stream directly.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T03:00:06.103Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window Bitcoin contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET" [1]. The contract is in the crypto category and is tied to a five-minute time range that is named in its title [1]. The contract's resolution rule compares two values. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The price used is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, which the source identifies as the resolution source [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T02:55:00.000Z, which corresponds to 10:55 PM ET on October 27 [1]. The provider record was observed at 2026-10-27T03:00:06.103Z, before the time range covered by the contract had begun, and the record lists the market's status as active at that observation [1]. That snapshot does not describe the contract's status today, and the end time in the rules is a contract closing time rather than an announced event. The price shown for the Up outcome and the Down outcome are snapshot values from the provider's record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sample for this event contains only this one market, and the provider record is not a full list of every possible outcome for the event [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the specified five-minute window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the rule uses an average over the window and compares it with the starting price, the result depends on the data stream named in the rules rather than on the last trade on any exchange [1]. Readers who want to understand the contract should focus on that exact definition, since the title alone does not describe how the result is measured [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome mean in this contract?
The market resolves to Up if the TWAP of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What does the Down outcome mean?
If the condition for Up is not met, the market resolves to Down [1].
Which price data determines the result?
The rules specify the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does this contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T02:55:00.000Z, which is 10:55 PM ET on October 27 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.