Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
PM $1.96
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
PM $1.96
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1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.96
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This record covers one Polymarket event, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET" [1]. According to the saved excerpt, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt states that the market is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The wording matters. The contract compares a window average against the starting price, not a closing price at the end of the window, and it assigns a tie to "Up." The listed end time is 2026-10-26T13:35:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a record of resolution.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z, and the package was retrieved at 2026-10-25T16:17:06.588Z [1]. Both are past capture times. The prices below describe that observation and may no longer be current.
The saved snapshot shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The difference between them is 0.010 at that moment. The evidence does not explain why the prices were at those levels.
The coverage record lists one market, with one included and no partial sample [1]. Because this is a single contract, there is no cross-platform comparison to draw. The evidence also contains no volume data, so it says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the Chainlink TWAP values for the window or the starting price, so it cannot show whether the window's average ended at or above the starting price. The saved status was "active" at observation [1], but no later status appears in the supplied material. Readers should check the provider page and the Chainlink stream directly for the current status and any settled outcome.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term price contract on Polymarket about Bitcoin, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET" and categorized as Crypto [1]. The contract covers a five-minute window named in its title. According to the contract rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules identify by name [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. This means the outcome depends on that specific feed, so a Bitcoin price quoted elsewhere would not decide the contract under these rules. The event data lists an end time of 2026-10-26T13:35:00.000Z and a status of active at the time of the provider observation [1]. The end time is the listed close for the event. It is not a record that the contract has resolved or that any outcome has been confirmed. The saved market data shows two outcomes, Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495, observed at 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they do not represent a verified probability of either outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over one short window, as defined by a time-weighted average from a specific Chainlink data stream [1]. Because the comparison is between the window's TWAP and the price at the start of the window, the contract asks whether the averaged price over that interval ends at or above its starting level. It does not ask whether Bitcoin's price is higher at the end of the window than at the start in a simple point-to-point sense, and it does not use other exchanges or spot markets [1]. Anyone reading the contract's price should keep these rule details in mind, since the outcome is defined only by the stated feed and method [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this contract decide between Up and Down?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the Bitcoin TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market is about that feed and not any other sources or spot markets [1].
What does the listed end time mean?
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T13:35:00.000Z [1]. This is the scheduled close recorded in the event data. It does not by itself show that the contract has resolved.
Do the listed prices show the likely outcome?
The saved snapshot shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 as of 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z [1]. These are observed prices at that time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they do not establish which outcome is more likely.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.