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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Name: Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.45M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Vol

$1.45M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.45M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.45M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Poly	0%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Poly	0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$1.45M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as I

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, August 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as I

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The number of daily tr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $993.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $30.1K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 33.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $395.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $319.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $278.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy