Market snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)

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UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)

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PM $0

Events

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Polymarket

Provider overview

polymarket

Reported lifetime volume

kalshi

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Price ChartContract price history

27 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Fight to Go the Distance?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(27)

Market	Platform	Price
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	50.0%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	50.0%
Will Renato Moicano win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50.0%
Will Tom Nolan win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50.0%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	50.0%
Will the fight be won by decision?	Poly	50.0%
Will the fight end before Round 2?	Poly	50.0%
Will the fight end before Round 3?	Poly	50.0%
Will the fight end before Round 4?	Poly	50.0%
Will the fight end before Round 5?	Poly	50.0%
Will Renato Moicano win in Round 1?	Poly	50.0%
Will Renato Moicano win in Round 2?	Poly	50.0%
Will Renato Moicano win in Round 3?	Poly	50.0%
Will Renato Moicano win in Round 4?	Poly	50.0%
Will Renato Moicano win in Round 5?	Poly	50.0%
Will Tom Nolan win in Round 1?	Poly	50.0%
Will Tom Nolan win in Round 2?	Poly	50.0%
Will Tom Nolan win in Round 3?	Poly	50.0%
Will Tom Nolan win in Round 4?	Poly	50.0%
Will Tom Nolan win in Round 5?	Poly	50.0%
Will the fight end in a decision or draw?	Poly	50.0%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)	Kalshi	Unavailable
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Kalshi	Unavailable
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Kalshi	Unavailable
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Kalshi	Unavailable
Over/Under 3.5 Rounds	Kalshi	Unavailable
Over/Under 4.5 Rounds	Kalshi	Unavailable

Rules & Resolution

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AI Analysis

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Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Renato Moicano" if Renato Moicano is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Tom Nolan" if Tom Nolan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)
Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): PM $0
Coverage: 27 of 27 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839588; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Renato Moicano: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Tom Nolan: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Renato Moicano" if Renato Moicano is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026.

It will resolve to "Tom Nolan" if Tom Nolan is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Fight to Go the Distance?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839589; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-go-the-distance
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839590; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-win-by-ko-tko
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Will Renato Moicano win by KO or TKO?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839591; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-moicano-win-by-ko-tko
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Renato Moicano defeats Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Will Tom Nolan win by KO or TKO?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839592; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-nolan-win-by-ko-tko
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Nolan defeats Renato Moicano at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Will the fight be won by submission?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839593; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-win-by-submission
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839594; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-totals-0pt5
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.

Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold.

For example:

"Over 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 1.

"Under 0.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 1.

If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50."

If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond November 14, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839595; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-totals-1pt5
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.

Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold.

For example:

"Over 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 2.

"Under 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 2.

If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50."

If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond November 14, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839596; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-totals-2pt5
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.

Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold.

For example:

"Over 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 3.

"Under 2.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 3.

If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50."

If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond November 14, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Over/Under 3.5 Rounds
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839597; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-totals-3pt5
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.

Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold.

For example:

"Over 3.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 4.

"Under 3.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 4.

If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50."

If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond November 14, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Over/Under 4.5 Rounds
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839599; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-totals-4pt5
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Over: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome Under: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold.

Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold.

For example:

"Over 4.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 5.

"Under 4.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 5.

If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50."

If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond November 14, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Will the fight be won by decision?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839600; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-win-by-decision
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, is won by decision, including unanimous, split, majority, and technical decisions. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Contract: Will the fight end before Round 2?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839601; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-ends-before-round-2
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, officially ends before Round 2 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed, so a fight stopped between Round 1 and Round 2 will resolve "Yes."

If the fight goes to the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed, it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will the fight end before Round 3?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839602; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-ends-before-round-3
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, officially ends before Round 3 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed, so a fight stopped between Round 2 and Round 3 will resolve "Yes."

If the fight goes to the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed, it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will the fight end before Round 4?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839603; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-ends-before-round-4
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, officially ends before Round 4 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed, so a fight stopped between Round 3 and Round 4 will resolve "Yes."

If the fight goes to the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed, it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will the fight end before Round 5?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839604; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-ends-before-round-5
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, officially ends before Round 5 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed, so a fight stopped between Round 4 and Round 5 will resolve "Yes."

If the fight goes to the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed, it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will Renato Moicano win in Round 1?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839605; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-moicano-win-in-round-1
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Renato Moicano defeats Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 1, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will Renato Moicano win in Round 2?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839606; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-moicano-win-in-round-2
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Renato Moicano defeats Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 2, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will Renato Moicano win in Round 3?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839607; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-moicano-win-in-round-3
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Renato Moicano defeats Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 3, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will Renato Moicano win in Round 4?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839608; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-moicano-win-in-round-4
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Renato Moicano defeats Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 4, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will Renato Moicano win in Round 5?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839609; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-moicano-win-in-round-5
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Renato Moicano defeats Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 5, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will Tom Nolan win in Round 1?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839611; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-nolan-win-in-round-1
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Nolan defeats Renato Moicano at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 1, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will Tom Nolan win in Round 2?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839612; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-nolan-win-in-round-2
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Nolan defeats Renato Moicano at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 2, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will Tom Nolan win in Round 3?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839613; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-nolan-win-in-round-3
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Nolan defeats Renato Moicano at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 3, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will Tom Nolan win in Round 4?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839614; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-nolan-win-in-round-4
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Nolan defeats Renato Moicano at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 4, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will Tom Nolan win in Round 5?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839615; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-nolan-win-in-round-5
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Nolan defeats Renato Moicano at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 5, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Contract: Will the fight end in a decision or draw?
Provider: polymarket; ID: polymarket-5839616; status: active
Source: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31-decision-or-draw
Observed: Oct 18, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Listed close: Nov 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
Reported volume: $0
Outcome Yes: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 50.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, is decided by the judges' scorecards or officially declared a draw, including unanimous, split, majority, and technical decisions, and technical draws. It will resolve to "No" if the fight ends by KO, TKO, submission, or disqualification.

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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