Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket event, "Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET" [1]. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a spot price chart or another platform's Ethereum contract should check that the wording and data source match, since a different reference price or time window would measure something different.
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T08:25:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's listed close time, not a record of when the outcome was determined.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from a provider observation at 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-26T11:12:03.026Z [1]. The prices describe that moment only and should not be read as current values at the time of reading.
The coverage record lists one total market and one included market for this event, with no partial sample flag [1]. Because both binary outcomes are present, the two prices can be read against each other. They are close to even, with Up slightly higher. These prices are not executable quotes, and the evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about how easily a position could be entered or exited.
The status at observation was "active" [1]. The evidence contains no later status update.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why the prices were at those levels, and this summary does not offer a reason. It also does not establish whether the snapshot still reflects the market, since prices may have changed after the observation time.
The sample warning states that the saved data includes all markets for this event but "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. For this binary event, the two listed outcomes are the only ones in the saved record. This snapshot should not be compared with other Ethereum contracts that use different time windows, different reference data, or different close times. Their prices measure different events, so a price gap between them is not evidence of an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term price contract on Polymarket titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET" [1]. It asks whether the price of Ethereum will move up or down over one five-minute window. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The market is in the crypto category and was listed with two outcomes, Up and Down [1]. The contract is tied to one specific data source. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the market is about the price according to that Chainlink TWAP data stream for the ETH/USD pair, and not about any other source or spot market [1]. This means that a move seen on an exchange or another price feed does not by itself determine the outcome. The listed end time for the market is 2026-10-27T08:25:00Z, which matches the close of the 4:25AM ET window in the title [1]. The source does not say when the outcome was determined or published, so the rules should be read as describing how the contract is decided rather than when it was settled.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Ethereum's price over one short window, as recorded by one specific Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. Because the outcome compares the average price over the window with the price at the window's start, the contract is about the direction of the averaged price rather than the exact price at the close [1]. Its wording also limits it to the Chainlink feed, which matters for anyone comparing it with prices shown elsewhere [1]. The contract is a single binary question about a five-minute interval, not a general forecast of Ethereum's price.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract ask?
It asks whether the Chainlink TWAP for Ethereum over the 4:20AM to 4:25AM ET window on October 27 will be greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. A yes-type result resolves to Up, and otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The outcome is based on the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules say the market is not based on any other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the contract end at the time shown in the title?
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T08:25:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the window in the title [1]. The source does not describe when the result is published or paid out.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
PM $0
Solana Up or Down - October 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.