This PredictPedia contract is built on a Kalshi event asking whether the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) will issue a new Emergency Directive. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes if CISA announces the issuance of a new Emergency Directive before the deadline in the market title, which for the saved sample includes Jul 1, 2027 [1]. The rules say an Emergency Directive counts once CISA has published it on its Cybersecurity Directives page, regardless of its subject. It must be newly issued and carry its own Emergency Directive number [1]. The market also states that it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The rules are specific about what does not count. A new version of an existing Emergency Directive, such as a first version of a numbered directive, does not qualify. Supplemental direction to an existing Emergency Directive does not qualify, nor does a Binding Operational Directive [1]. Adding a vulnerability to the Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog does not qualify, and neither does any remediation deadline that follows from such an addition [1]. A CISA alert, advisory or other guidance urging agencies or the public to act does not qualify, and a statement that an Emergency Directive is under consideration or forthcoming does not qualify either [1]. These exclusions matter because a fair amount of CISA communication could be mistaken for a directive without meeting the contract's test. The saved event contains four markets with different deadlines: Dec 1, 2026, Jan 1, 2027, Apr 1, 2027, and Jul 1, 2027. Each market is a separate question with its own Yes and No prices. In the observation snapshot taken at 12:00 UTC on October 24, 2026, the Yes prices were 0.19, 0.40, 0.59 and 0.79 for those four deadlines, in that order [1]. These are snapshots of listed prices at one moment, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be read as a forecast. The four markets are the full set saved for this event, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. The listed end dates in the provider data, such as 2026-12-08, are provider fields and are not announced dates for any CISA action. Several general references are attached to this topic. Wikipedia describes the EINSTEIN System as a network intrusion detection and prevention system that CISA develops and manages for US federal departments and agencies [2]. Wikipedia also describes a computer emergency response team as an incident response team dedicated to computer security incidents [3]. Those pages provide context about CISA's cybersecurity role but do not explain the Emergency Directive process or the contract's resolution rules.

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