Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T03:00:05.981Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a short-window binary contract on Ethereum's price. The market resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The title sets the window as "October 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET" [1]. The stated resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream, and the provider notes that the contract is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-24T17:55:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-24T03:00:05.981Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-24T04:48:41.184Z [1]. Those are two separate times, and the observation is the price reading. At observation, Polymarket showed "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and it reflects only what was quoted at that moment.
The Polymarket listing is the only market in this sample. The coverage record shows one market in the saved event, with no partial sample flag [1]. The provider's ranking rule (up to 12 markets per event, ordered by price) does not affect this single contract. Because no other platform or event is included, there is no cross-platform comparison here. Different contracts with different wording or close times should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity just because their prices differ.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not show the price at the time you read this page, and it does not show whether the market is still trading. The source record lists the provider status as active at retrieval, but it does not give a later price or a settlement result [1]. The saved evidence also does not explain why the prices were where they were, and it contains no information about trading activity. Volume and listing data are not included in this record, so they cannot be read as liquidity or as a count of participants.
The sample warning states that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this is a two-outcome contract, the "Up" and "Down" prices here are the only quoted outcomes in the record, but the evidence does not establish anything beyond that.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T03:00:05.981Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration crypto contract on Polymarket titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET" [1]. It asks whether the price of Ethereum over a five-minute window will be higher or lower than at the start of that window. According to the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The contract's listed end time is 2026-10-24T17:55:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the window in the title [1]. A listed end time is the contract's closing time, not a record that the outcome has been determined. The saved record shows the provider status as active, so the outcome had not been recorded at the time of that observation [1]. The contract specifies which price data counts. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in this Chainlink data stream for the ETH/USD pair, and not the price from any other source or from spot markets [1]. This means a reader should not assume that a price on another exchange or a different data feed determines the result. The contract's own rules name the data stream that counts.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of the Chainlink ETH/USD time-weighted average price over one specific five-minute window, compared with the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the comparison uses a time-weighted average rather than a single instant, the result depends on prices across the whole window and on the reference price at its beginning [1]. The rules tie the outcome to one named data stream, so the contract answers a narrower question than a general question about the price of Ethereum [1]. Anyone reading a market price for this contract should keep in mind that the price reflects trading in the contract itself, and that the contract is defined by the Chainlink stream and its stated rules [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this market resolve to Up?
The market resolves to Up if the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What makes this market resolve to Down?
If the TWAP over the time range is not greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, the market resolves to Down [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say the market is about that stream and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does this contract close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-24T17:55:00Z, which matches the end of the 1:50PM to 1:55PM ET window in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.