Snapshot observed 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

Each contract in this Kalshi event asks whether a specific song will rank first on a named chart. The event is titled "YouTube Charts: Weekly Top Song USA," and the rule states that "If X is ranked #1 on YouTube's Weekly Top Songs United States Chart dated Oct 16 - Oct 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The contracts therefore refer to one chart week, not to a general popularity measure. The source also says the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].

The listed close time is inconsistent across the evidence. The market records show an end date of 2027-10-22T14:00:00.000Z, but the source excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. Because the provider's own excerpt does not confirm that date, readers should not treat it as a confirmed closing time or as an announced resolution date.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z and retrieved at 2026-10-21T14:59:28.263Z [1]. It shows a Yes price of 0.495 and a No price of 0.505 for each of the 12 included contracts. These are observed prices at that moment, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be read as current after that time.

The identical prices across contracts are notable in this sample, but the evidence does not explain them, and this summary does not infer a cause. Each contract is a separate question about a different song, so the matching prices should not be combined into a single average or treated as an arbitrage signal.

The sample is partial. The provider event lists 15 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The selection rule ranks markets by Yes price, then volume, and the excerpt says counts "describe the saved provider event, not the whole real-world field" [1]. The three omitted markets have no prices shown here, so nothing can be concluded about their likelihood. Volume is not reported in this excerpt and is not a measure of liquidity or trader count.

What remains uncertain

Several points cannot be settled from this evidence. The actual resolution has not been reported, and the excerpt contains no chart results. The listed end time conflicts with the source's statement that it was not supplied. The three omitted contracts, their prices, and the reasons for the sample's composition are unknown. The source also notes that the market "has not been endorsed by YouTube," and any references to YouTube are "descriptive only" [1]. Readers comparing this snapshot with later data should check the retrieval time and the provider's current listing.

References

1. Kalshi: YouTube Charts: Weekly Top Song USA. Provider data observed 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z.