BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T00:00:06.241Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract, "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET" [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T19:45:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should confirm how the two map before relying on the window.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-28T00:00:06.241Z and retrieved at 2026-10-28T01:45:59.047Z [1]. These are the times of the saved data, not a live feed. The provider status was recorded as active [1].
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. Because the two outcomes sum to 1.00, the snapshot implies a near-even split between them. These are recorded prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Volume is not included in this comparison and says nothing about liquidity or the number of participants.
The sample covers one market for this event, and it is complete for the saved event: one market was included out of one listed, with no partial sample flag [1]. The source notes that counts describe the saved provider event, not every possible real-world outcome [1]. This is a single binary contract, so no outcomes were omitted from it.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why the prices are where they are, and this analysis does not explain any movement. It also does not establish how the window will settle, since the TWAP over 3:30 to 3:45 PM ET is not included in the saved data [1]. The rules refer to "the price at the beginning of that range" [1], but the excerpt does not specify how that starting price is determined beyond that wording, so readers should check the full rules for that detail.
Comparing this contract with a different platform or a different time window would require checking each contract's own wording, resolution source, and listed close time. Different prices across such contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without that check.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T00:00:06.241Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval crypto contract on Polymarket titled "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 3:30 PM to 3:45 PM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether the price of BNB, measured in US dollars, will be higher or lower at the end of a 15-minute window than at its start. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is specific. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream generated by Chainlink, not any exchange or other spot market. The rules state that prices from other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1]. A reader should therefore treat the contract as a question about one named data feed over one named time range, rather than a general question about where BNB trades. The listing shows a scheduled end time of 19:45 UTC on October 28, 2026, and the provider status is active [1]. That end time is the point at which the window in the contract rules closes and the outcome can be determined under the stated method. It is not a record of an event that has already happened.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over one 15-minute window, as recorded by a specific Chainlink TWAP feed [1]. Because the outcome compares an average over the window with the price at the window's start, a contract can resolve "Up" even if the price at the end of the window is below the starting level, and the reverse is also possible. Readers who want to understand the question should read the rule wording closely rather than relying on a general sense of the BNB price. The listed prices in the available snapshot were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These figures are snapshot prices from a moment in the provider data, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The snapshot was observed at 00:00 UTC on October 28, 2026, and retrieved at 01:45 UTC the same day. Because the window ends at 19:45 UTC, the contract had not closed at the time of retrieval, and the outcome was not known.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract compares the time-weighted average price of BNB over the 3:30 PM to 3:45 PM ET window with the price at the start of that window. If the TWAP is greater than or equal to the starting price, it resolves to "Up"; otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which data source is used to settle the contract?
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream generated by Chainlink. The rules say the market concerns that feed and not other sources or spot markets [1].
What does the listed end time mean?
The listing gives an end time of 19:45 UTC on October 28, 2026 [1]. This marks when the window in the rules closes. It does not mean the outcome has been reported, and the market was still listed as active when the source was retrieved [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that BNB rises?
No. The listed prices of 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down are snapshot prices from the provider data [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they describe only one moment in the observation window.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.