PA-10 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.5K
1
10
PA-10 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.5K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 6-9% at 21.9%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 6-9%21.9%
- Democrat 3-6%17.5%
- Democrat 12-15%14.7%
- Democrat 9-12%13.5%
- Democrat 0-3%12.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $16.5K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 PA-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 PA-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks how the margin of victory in the 2026 PA-10 House election will resolve. The margin is defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket is a separate Yes or No contract on a range of that margin, such as the Democratic candidate winning by 3%-6% or the Republican candidate winning by 6% or more [1].
The rules include several points that affect how a bracket resolves. A value that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The market resolves on the official count once it is certified, and a recount initiated before certification keeps the market open [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, and the source says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. Those dates describe contract mechanics, not confirmed event timing beyond what the source states.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T04:00:13.882Z [1]. These are snapshots of quoted prices. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
All 10 saved markets for this event are included, and the sample is not marked partial [1]. The highest Yes prices are for Democratic brackets: 6%-9% at 0.216 and 3%-6% at 0.2005 [1]. The Republican 0%-3% bracket is at 0.131, and the Democratic 0%-3% bracket is at 0.075 [1]. The Republican 6% or more bracket is at 0.043, and the Democratic 18% or more bracket is at 0.0035 [1].
Each bracket is a distinct contract. Adding or averaging their Yes prices across brackets or parties would combine different outcomes, so this summary does not do that. A difference in price between two contracts is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity, since their rules and close conditions must match first.
What remains uncertain
The source does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not report trader counts, news, or the level of liquidity behind these quotes. Volume is not included in the excerpt used here, and it would not indicate liquidity or the number of participants.
The sample warning states that the listed markets do not establish that the provider covers every possible real-world outcome [1]. Readers should check the full rules before relying on any bracket, especially the tie-break and "Other" provisions.
References
- Polymarket: PA-10 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia's PA-10 House Election Margin of Victory event is a set of contracts tied to how far apart the top two candidates finish in the 2026 PA-10 House election. The contract rules define the margin as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The rules state that the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. Other sources in the evidence also list November 3, 2026 as the date for the 2026 Pennsylvania elections [2][3], but these are scheduling references rather than confirmed results. The rules say that candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and that independent candidates do not count as either party's option [1]. Candidate names may appear in the contract for convenience, and if a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract will be updated and will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1]. The bracket structure matters for edge cases. If the reported margin falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The rules also describe tie handling. If two candidates tied for the most valid votes and both were listed, the lowest margin bracket goes to the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie was between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, the lowest margin bracket goes to the listed candidate. If the tie was between two or more unlisted candidates, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution depends on the official vote count. The rules say the market will resolve on the official count once it is made official, and that the primary source will be the official results as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z is the contract closing time shown by the provider. It is not the resolution date, which depends on when official results are certified under the rules above [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the margin of victory in one congressional race, not which party wins it alone. Because each bracket covers a range of percentage-point gaps for either the Democratic or Republican candidate, the event asks how decisive the result will be [1]. The rules define margin using valid votes only, so the calculation depends on the official valid-vote totals rather than total ballots cast [1]. Traders reviewing the contract should read the bracket boundaries, tie rules, and the official certification language, since those determine the outcome in edge cases [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the PA-10 margin of victory contract measure?
It measures the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates in the 2026 PA-10 House election [1].
Do independent candidates count as Democratic or Republican options?
No. The rules say independent candidates will not represent options for either party, and the Democratic and Republican options refer to nominees of those parties [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
The contract name will be updated, and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
How is a margin that falls exactly on a bracket boundary handled?
The rules say the market resolves to the higher margin bracket when the reported value falls exactly between two brackets [1].
When does the market resolve to Other if results are unclear?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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