Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract from Polymarket, listed under the title "Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET" [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should therefore compare this contract only with other contracts that use the same data stream and window. A market that uses a spot price, a different window, or a different threshold measures something else.
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T20:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the platform's listed close, not a confirmed resolution time. The rules do not state when or how the resolution will be published.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the prices at 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z. The source was retrieved at 2026-10-25T22:34:05.166Z, which is the time this summary was generated [1]. The prices therefore describe the market at the observation time and do not show current conditions.
The saved snapshot lists two outcomes: "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sum of the two prices is 1.000, so the snapshot shows no gap between them. The sample contains one market from one event, and the coverage record shows all saved markets were included [1]. No volume or trader count is reported, and volume would not indicate liquidity in any case.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why the prices were at these levels, and nothing in the supplied evidence describes events affecting Solana or this contract. The evidence also does not show prices after the observation time.
The contract should not be compared with Solana contracts on other platforms, with other windows, or with spot price targets unless the rules match. Even small differences in wording, such as the data stream, the threshold, or the listed close, can change what the contract measures. The source excerpt also records a provider status of "active" at retrieval, but that field describes the provider's listing, not the outcome.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-term price direction market on Solana, titled "Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET" and listed in the Crypto category [1]. It asks whether the price of Solana over one fifteen-minute window will finish above or below where that window began. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rules name Chainlink as the resolution source, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The source states that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the SOL/USD pair, and not other sources or spot markets [1]. This means the outcome depends on that one data feed, so a price on a different exchange or data service would not decide the market under these rules. The saved event lists an end time of 2026-10-26T20:00:00.000Z [1]. The title gives the window in Eastern Time, and the listed end time is the provider's recorded close for the event. The provider status recorded in the evidence was active at the observation time, which was 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z [1]. That status describes the saved snapshot only and should not be read as the market's status today.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Solana's TWAP over a specific fifteen-minute window is at or above its starting level, as defined by the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream [1]. Because the comparison is between an average over the window and the price at the window's start, the rule does not simply ask whether the price is higher at the end than at the beginning. Anyone reading the contract should check the exact wording of the rules, since the resolution depends on the named data stream and the stated time range [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range, and Down otherwise [1].
Do prices on other exchanges or sources determine the outcome?
No. The provider states that the market concerns only the Chainlink TWAP data stream for SOL/USD and not any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the market end?
The saved event lists an end time of 2026-10-26T20:00:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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