Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

Name: What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?
End: 2027-01-11T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.38K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

Vol

$14.38K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.38K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.38K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31?	Poly	42%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $407,000 and $417,000 on December 31?	Poly	20%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $397,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	Poly	16%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $427,000 and $437,000 on December 31?	Poly	15%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $417,000 and $427,000 on December 31?	Poly	11%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $446,000 on December 31?	Poly	3%
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $437,000 and $446,000 on December 31?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

42%

Top Probability

$14.38K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 11, 2027 (92 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on December 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on December 31, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $3.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 42.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $397,000 and $407,000 on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $407,000 and $417,000 on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $417,000 and $427,000 on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $427,000 and $437,000 on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $437,000 and $446,000 on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $819
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $446,000 on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy