IL-12 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $24.7K
1
10
IL-12 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $24.7K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 35-40% at 26.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 35-40%26.5%
- Republican 30-35%23.5%
- Republican 25-30%17.5%
- Republican 40-45%13.7%
- Republican 45-50%11.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $24.7K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 IL-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 IL-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contracts in this snapshot track the margin of victory in the 2026 IL-12 House election. The margin is the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates, calculated from valid votes [1]. Only Democratic and Republican nominees count as options. Independent candidates do not represent either party [1]. The source states that the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1].
The contract rules include several resolution details that affect how the prices should be read. If a reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties are handled by a specified tiebreak rule, and the market resolves to "Other" if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, which is a listed close time, not an announced event date [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-19T03:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:29:11Z [1]. These are prices from that observation window, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved sample includes all 10 markets for this event, and the coverage record marks the sample as not partial [1]. The sample warning still notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1].
Among the saved Yes prices, the 35% to 40% Republican margin bracket was highest at 0.29, followed by 30% to 35% at 0.225 and 25% to 30% at 0.18 [1]. The Democratic win contract was at 0.0505, and the 50% or more Republican margin contract was at 0.009 [1]. Each contract is a separate question with its own boundary and tie rules, so prices should not be combined or compared as if they were one distribution. A difference between two prices is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and no trader count or agreement level is available. Volume is not included in this interpretation and would not show liquidity. The source does not report results, recent developments, or the forecasting record of this market type. Final resolution depends on the official count and certification, and a recount would keep the market open until completed [1]. Readers should check the current source before relying on any price.
References
- Polymarket: IL-12 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This market belongs to PredictPedia's politics category and concerns the 2026 U.S. House election in Illinois's 12th congressional district. The contract does not ask which party wins. It asks how large the gap is between the top two candidates. The margin of victory is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The source states that the 2026 IL-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. A Wikipedia article on the 2026 Illinois House elections describes the same November 3, 2026 date and notes that primary elections were held on March 17, 2026 [2]. Those statements describe scheduled events and do not report results. The contract's party options follow the nominees of the Democratic and Republican Parties. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1]. Candidate names appear in the contract only for convenience, so the nominee rules control. The rules also set bracket boundaries and ties. If the reported margin falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the rules send the tie to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie involves only unlisted candidates, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution depends on the official vote count. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the total becomes official, the market stays open until the recount finishes and the vote is certified [1]. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The provider lists an end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC, which is a listed end time and not a result announcement [1].
Historical Context
The supplied sources give limited history for this specific race. The Wikipedia article on the 2018 U.S. House elections states that those elections were held on November 6, 2018, were midterm elections during President Donald Trump's first term, and chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 states [3]. That article is background on a different election cycle and does not describe the 2026 IL-12 race. The 2026 Illinois article identifies the House elections as covering the state's 17 districts and as coinciding with other federal and state elections [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness within one district by tracking the size of the winning margin rather than the winner alone. Because the brackets are defined by percentage points of valid votes, a bracket can resolve on a close race in the way the rules define it, even when the direction of the result is not the question [1]. Its design also means that ties, boundary values, recounts, and a possible lack of certified results all affect how the contract resolves, so the rules matter as much as the outcome itself [1]. The market shows what traders were pricing in a snapshot taken at the observation time, but the snapshot is not a verified probability or an executable quote.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the election that this contract covers?
The source states that the 2026 IL-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The Illinois Wikipedia article gives the same date for the 2026 House elections in Illinois [2].
How is the margin of victory calculated?
It is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1].
Do independent candidates count in this market?
No. The rules state that independent candidates will not represent options for either party [1].
What happens if the result falls exactly on a bracket boundary?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What is the resolution deadline if results are not known?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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