Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket market is titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET" [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The named resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules note that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1]
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T19:10:00.000Z [1]. This is the close time in the contract rules. It is not evidence that the market has resolved, and the supplied record does not show a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record was observed at 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z and retrieved at 2026-10-31T05:45:21.853Z [1]. These are different moments. The observation came before the 3:05PM ET window in the title, and the retrieval came later still. The record describes that earlier snapshot and should not be read as current prices.
At observation, the quoted prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down," with the provider status recorded as active [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The small gap between them does not indicate a forecast or an opportunity.
The sample is one market from one provider event. Coverage shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. The saved warning states that all saved markets for these events are included, but that this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. This is therefore a complete record of the saved event, not a full description of every possible outcome.
Because only one platform and one contract appear, no cross-platform comparison is possible.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices were at these levels. It does not include the TWAP values, the beginning-of-range price, trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. Volume would not show liquidity or trader count in any case. Readers who need the current status or final result will need a newer retrieval and the resolution record, which this snapshot does not contain.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Ethereum price contract listed on Polymarket under the title "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET" [1]. The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, Up and Down [1]. It asks whether the price of Ether (ETH) measured against US dollars will move up or down over one five-minute window, which the title identifies as 3:05PM to 3:10PM ET on October 31 [1]. The resolution rule is specific. The market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. If it is lower, the market resolves to Down [1]. The TWAP is averaged across the window rather than read at a single instant, so the outcome depends on the average over the five minutes compared with the starting level. The contract names Chainlink as its resolution source, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price reported by that Chainlink data stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. A trader reading this contract therefore needs to understand the Chainlink feed rather than a general exchange price chart.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of the ETH/USD price over a short, defined window, as recorded in the Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. Because the rule compares the window's average with the price at the beginning of the window, the result reflects movement within that interval rather than a longer trend [1]. Its narrow five-minute timeframe and its dependence on one named data feed are the main features that define what it measures [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP over the 3:05PM to 3:10PM ET range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and Down otherwise [1].
Does the contract use exchange prices or spot markets?
No. The rules state that the market is about the price in the Chainlink TWAP data stream for ETH/USD and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract end?
The saved contract data lists an end time of 2026-10-31T19:10:00.000Z, and the listed status is active [1]. This is the contract's listed end time, not evidence of any separate event.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.