Will a Paul Cézanne artwork break his auction record this year?
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Will a Paul Cézanne artwork break his auction record this year?
K 0 contracts
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 11, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, Yes is priced at 49% on Kalshi.
Kalshi
- Yes49%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 11, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
in 2026 If a work by Paul Cézanne sells at public auction for a sold price above $137,790,000 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If no lot recorded later could change the Market Outcome, expiration will be moved to an earlier date and time in accordance with Rule 7.2. If no lot recorded later could change the Market Outcome, expiration will be moved to an earlier date and time in accordance with Rule 7.2.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-10T00:00:05.955Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether a work by Paul Cézanne will sell at public auction for more than $137,790,000 during 2026. The market resolves to Yes if that happens [1]. The excerpt also states an early close condition: if no lot recorded later could change the Market Outcome, expiration will be moved to an earlier date and time under Rule 7.2 [1]. The supplied evidence does not include the text of Rule 7.2, so the effect of that clause cannot be determined from this snapshot.
The rules and the listed close time also need careful reading. The market record shows an end date of 2027-02-01T15:00:00.000Z [1], but the same source describes the listed end time as "not supplied." A date in the rules or a data field does not establish when the market will actually close or resolve.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-11-10T00:00:05.955Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-10T00:59:55.994Z [1]. This is a record of the market at that moment, not a live reading.
The only market in the sample is labeled "Above $137.79M," with a Yes price of 0.5 and a No price of 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The evidence provides no volume, liquidity, or trader count, so it cannot show how deep the market is or how many participants hold either side.
The sample covers one event and one market. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because only this contract was saved, there is no other outcome in this sample to compare against. The sample warning also states that the saved markets "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain the 0.5 prices or indicate what would move them. It does not identify any specific auction, lot, or sale. It also does not confirm whether the early close clause will be triggered, or when the market will actually close, since the listed end time is described as not supplied. Readers should check the provider's current contract page before relying on any timing or resolution detail.
References
- Kalshi: Will a Paul Cézanne artwork break his auction record this year?. Provider data observed 2026-11-10T00:00:05.955Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 10, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract asks whether a work by Paul Cézanne will sell at public auction for more than $137,790,000 during 2026. According to the contract excerpt on the Kalshi event page, if that happens the market resolves to Yes [1]. The title frames the question as whether Cézanne will break his auction record this year, and the threshold in the rules is the figure that determines resolution [1]. The rules also include an early close provision. If no lot recorded later could change the market outcome, expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time under Rule 7.2 [1]. The excerpt describes the provider status as active but does not supply a listed end time [1]. The saved market record carries an end date of 1 February 2027, which is a closing field in the saved data and should not be read as the date the outcome is determined. Closing time and resolution are separate events, and the saved record does not show when any qualifying sale would be recorded. The contract is therefore narrow. It does not ask about Cézanne's overall prices, his reputation, or sales of other artists. It turns on a single threshold for public auction sales of his works within the stated year [1].
Historical Context
Cézanne is described as a figure who formed a bridge between late 19th-century Impressionism and early 20th-century Cubism [2]. For context on top auction prices in general, the Christie's excerpt reports that Salvator Mundi sold at Christie's in New York on 15 November 2017 for $450 million, which it describes as the highest price ever paid for a painting [3]. That sale involved a different artwork and does not establish the Cézanne figure used in this contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a single public auction sale of a Cézanne work exceeds $137,790,000 in 2026 [1]. Its value depends on the rule text, including the threshold, the calendar year referenced, and the early close provision that may move expiration if no later lot could change the outcome [1]. Anyone reading the market should separate the rule's threshold from any reported auction record, since the contract wording does not itself state what the current record is.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-10 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for this contract to resolve to Yes?
A work by Paul Cézanne must sell at public auction for a sold price above $137,790,000 in 2026 [1].
Can the contract close before December 31, 2026?
The rules allow expiration to be moved to an earlier date and time if no lot recorded later could change the market outcome, under Rule 7.2 [1]. The excerpt does not say that this has happened.
Does the saved price of 0.50 for Yes mean the event is 50 percent likely?
No. The saved Yes and No prices are snapshots from the observed time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The contract text itself does not describe how prices should be interpreted.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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