Ohio St. vs Texas: Regular Season Wins
K 2.1K contracts
1
3
Ohio St. vs Texas: Regular Season Wins
K 2.1K contracts
1
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Ohio St. at 78%.
Kalshi
- Ohio St.78%
- Tie11.5%
- Texas8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 2.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Ohio St. vs Texas (2026-27) If X college football team records more regular season wins than X college football team in the 2026-27 college football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes. If X college football team Y college football team record an equal number of regular season wins in the 2026-27 college football regular season, then the market titled "Tie" resolves to Yes. Conference championships, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count towards this market. Note: It does not matter whether Z college football team [ college football team played the same amount of regular season games; the market still resolves based on the total number of regular season wins for each team. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a Kalshi event comparing regular season wins for Ohio State and Texas in the 2026-27 college football season [1]. The provider's rules state that "Conference championships, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count towards this market" [1]. Only regular season games count.
The event contains three separate yes/no markets. One asks whether Ohio State records more regular season wins than Texas. A second asks whether Texas records more. A third asks whether the two teams record an equal number of wins, and the provider's rules say this "Tie" market resolves to Yes in that case [1]. Each market has its own price, so they should be read separately rather than as one ranked list.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z and retrieved at 2026-10-13T04:38:26.013Z [1]. These are times for the snapshot, not a live feed, and the prices may have changed since then.
In the snapshot, the Ohio State market shows Yes at 0.535 and No at 0.465. The Texas market shows Yes at 0.25 and No at 0.75. The tie market shows Yes at 0.225 and No at 0.775 [1]. These figures are the saved prices for those contracts. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any outcome. Because these prices come from a single saved snapshot, the data does not show how they compare with other platforms or with other points in time.
The market list lists an end date of 2027-02-02T04:00:00.000Z for all three markets [1]. This is a listed close time in the saved data, not a resolution date and not an announced event. The provider's own excerpt, however, says the "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The two entries conflict, so the close time should be checked directly with the provider before relying on it.
The sample includes all three saved markets for this event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. That still does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this matchup.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not report trading activity, the number of participants, or any news. Volume is not included in this explanation, and it would not reveal liquidity even if it were. The saved data also does not show how these prices have changed over time, so no trend can be described. Finally, the outcome of the 2026-27 season is not part of this evidence, so the contract's eventual resolution cannot be known from this snapshot.
References
- Kalshi: Ohio St. vs Texas: Regular Season Wins. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event covers regular season college football wins for Ohio St. and Texas in the 2026-27 season. The rules state that "If X college football team records more regular season wins than X college football team in the 2026-27 college football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes." They add that "Conference championships, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count towards this market" [1].
Three separate contracts are included, and each asks a different question. One asks whether Ohio St. records more regular season wins than Texas. Another asks whether Texas records more. The third asks whether the two teams record an equal number of wins. Each contract has its own Yes and No outcomes, so the three should be read separately rather than as parts of one probability distribution.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-13T03:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-13T04:38:26Z [1]. These are snapshot times. They describe the saved data, not live trading conditions, and the prices below should not be treated as current or executable.
At the observation time, the saved Yes prices were 0.535 for Ohio St. winning more games, 0.25 for Texas winning more games, and 0.225 for an equal number of wins. These are snapshot prices, not verified probabilities. Because the three contracts ask different questions, their Yes prices should not be averaged or summed into a single view. The sum of these three Yes prices is slightly above 1, which is a feature of the saved quotes and does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
Each market lists an end date of 2027-02-02T04:00:00Z. That is a contract timing field, not an announced event date. The source excerpt separately states "Listed end time: not supplied," so the close timing is not fully settled by the evidence.
The sample is complete for this event: all three saved markets are included, and the coverage record reports no partial sample. The sample warning, however, notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold each view, or how liquid these contracts are. Volume figures are absent. The supplied material also contains no information about the teams' schedules or any later developments, so the prices cannot be connected to events beyond the saved snapshot. Anyone comparing these contracts with markets on other platforms should check that the wording, close times, and resolution rules match first.
References
- Kalshi: Ohio St. vs Texas: Regular Season Wins. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This market is a Kalshi contract tied to regular season wins for Ohio State and Texas in the 2026-27 college football regular season [1]. The contract compares the two teams' regular season win totals. If Ohio State records more regular season wins than Texas, the market titled as Ohio State winning resolves to Yes. If Texas records more, the Texas market resolves to Yes. If the two teams record an equal number of wins, the market titled "Tie" resolves to Yes [1]. The rules exclude conference championships, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games from the count [1]. The saved event includes three markets: Ohio State recording more wins, Texas recording more wins, and the two teams recording an equal number of wins [1]. In the saved snapshot, the Yes price for Ohio State having more wins was 0.535, the Yes price for Texas having more wins was 0.25, and the Yes price for a tie was 0.225. These figures are snapshot prices from the provider observation time of 2026-10-13 03:00 UTC, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. Because all three markets are the saved set for this event, the comparison among them is complete for this record, but it says nothing about how the prices might have moved since. The contract is tied to a season that has not yet been played. The saved market records show an end date of 2027-02-02 04:00 UTC, but the provider excerpt does not supply a listed end time, so that date should be understood as a record field rather than an announced resolution date. The contract resolves based on the regular season results described in its rules, not on the date shown in the record.
Historical Context
Ohio State's 2024 team, which was led by sixth-year head coach Ryan Day, played as a member of the Big Ten Conference and was the Buckeyes' 135th season overall [3]. The 2026 team page records that the Scarlet vs Gray Spring Game was played on April 18, 2026, and that the 2026 season is the Buckeyes' 137th overall [2]. These sources describe past and scheduled program history and do not report the results of the 2026-27 regular season, which had not been played at the time of the saved records.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a head-to-head comparison of regular season win totals between two programs in a single season [1]. It is useful for understanding how a market can split a comparison into three outcomes, including a tie. The rules are narrow: only regular season games count, so postseason results such as conference title games, bowl games, and playoff games do not affect the outcome [1]. Anyone reading the prices should keep in mind that they are snapshots from a specific observation time, and that the contract's outcome will depend on the final regular season records rather than on any price at a given moment.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Do conference championships or bowl games count toward this market?
No. The rules state that conference championships, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count toward this market [1].
What happens if Ohio State and Texas finish with the same number of regular season wins?
The market titled "Tie" resolves to Yes if the two teams record an equal number of regular season wins in the 2026-27 regular season [1].
Is the February 2, 2027 date in the market record the date the contract resolves?
Not necessarily. The saved market record lists an end date of 2027-02-02 04:00 UTC, but the provider excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied [1]. The resolution depends on the regular season results described in the rules [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that each team wins more games?
The prices are snapshots from a specific observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They show the saved Yes prices for each outcome at that time, and the contract's result will be determined by the 2026-27 regular season [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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