MVP Winner?
PM $1.29M · K 36.16M contracts
2
78
MVP Winner?
PM $1.29M · K 36.16M contracts
2
78
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, Josh Allen is priced at 30% on Polymarket and 30% on Kalshi.
| Outcome (Yes price) | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenSame question, fine print differs | 30% | 30% | 0.0 pts |
| Brock PurdySame question, fine print differs | 27.4% | 29.5% | 2.1 pts |
| Patrick MahomesSame question, fine print differs | 8.9% | 7.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Joe BurrowSame question, fine print differs | 6.3% | 6.5% | 0.2 pts |
| Jordan LoveSame question, fine print differs | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Drake MayeSame question, fine print differs | 4.2% | 5.5% | 1.3 pts |
| Trevor LawrenceSame question, fine print differs | 5.3% | 5.5% | 0.3 pts |
| Caleb WilliamsSame question, fine print differs | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.8 pts |
Yes prices for outcomes an automated review found to ask the same question on both platforms. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $1.29M · K 36.16M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
78
Saved contracts
27
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
2026-27 season If X wins the Pro Football AP Regular Season MVP in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T09:10:12.733Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event, "MVP Winner?", is listed on Kalshi for the 2026-27 season. Each market in the sample asks whether one named player will win the Pro Football AP Regular Season MVP. The source states: "If X wins the Pro Football AP Regular Season MVP in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] A "Yes" price is the market's trading level for that outcome, and "No" is the opposite side. The source also says the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs." [1]
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-13T09:10:12.733Z and retrieved at 09:52:39.455Z, both UTC. These times describe when this record was captured, not a live feed. The prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. [1]
In this sample, the highest "Yes" prices are Brock Purdy at 0.27, Josh Allen at 0.265, and Patrick Mahomes at 0.095. These figures only describe trading levels at observation time. They do not show how confident traders are in aggregate, and they do not show why any price is where it is.
The sample is partial. It includes 12 of 49 markets from this Kalshi event, selected by highest "Yes" price and then by volume. The supplied data does not give prices for the other 37 markets, so no conclusion about them should be drawn. The sample also covers only this one provider event.
The saved market records list an end date of 2028-02-12T15:00:00.000Z. The provider excerpt, however, says "Listed end time: not supplied." [1] Because these two items conflict, the date should not be read as a confirmed closing or resolution time.
What remains uncertain
Only one provider source was supplied, so no comparison with other platforms is possible. The excerpt does not include trading volume or the number of traders, and a price alone does not reveal liquidity. The supplied evidence contains no news, no explanation of price movement, and no confirmed resolution. The source also notes that Kalshi "is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League." [1]
References
- Kalshi: MVP Winner?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T09:10:12.733Z.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T09:10:12.733Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event is titled "MVP Winner?" and covers the 2026-27 season. Each listed market asks whether one named player wins the award. The source excerpt states: "If X wins the Pro Football AP Regular Season MVP in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Each contract therefore resolves on its own player, and the Yes and No prices refer only to that player.
The excerpt also says the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs." [1] Market records list an end date of 2028-02-12 at 15:00 UTC, but the excerpt marks the listed end time as "not supplied." [1] That date is a field in the contract data. It is not evidence of an announced award date, and this snapshot does not establish when the season's award will be decided.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 09:10:12 UTC on 13 October 2026 and retrieved at 09:37:55 UTC the same day. [1] These are provider and retrieval times for one saved record. They are not live quotes. The prices are snapshot values from that observation and cannot be executed as they stand.
Within the included sample, Brock Purdy has a Yes price of 0.27, Josh Allen 0.265, and Patrick Mahomes 0.095. [1] Several players sit lower, including Jared Goff, Bryce Young, and Dak Prescott at 0.025 each. [1] Each price reflects a separate contract, so the figures should be read as separate snapshot values, not as a probability distribution across a full field.
The sample is partial. The coverage record shows 12 of 49 markets included for this event. [1] The selection rule ranks by Yes price descending, then volume. [1] The included rows do not describe the full field, and this response does not interpret any omitted player's price. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count, so it is not used here.
Different wording or close times across platforms would matter, but this evidence contains only one provider, so no cross-platform comparison is made.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why prices are where they are, how many traders hold each position, or whether any of these players is likely to win. It also does not provide current news about the season, the award's announcement timing, or any historical accuracy of these prices. Readers should treat this snapshot as a record of one provider's quoted values at one observation time.
References
- Kalshi: MVP Winner?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T09:10:12.733Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether a specific player will win the Pro Football AP Regular Season MVP for the 2026-27 season. The provider's rules state that if the named player wins that award, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The award itself is given by the Associated Press to the player judged most valuable in a given year's regular season, and the AP award is generally treated as the most prestigious NFL MVP honor [3]. Each individual market in this event is a yes or no question about one player. The event page also states that the market will close and expire early if the award event occurs [1]. The provider's listing shows an end time of 2028-02-12 for each market in the saved data, but the provider's rules do not state an end time, and that date should not be read as the date the award will be announced [1]. The prices attached to these markets are snapshots taken from the provider's data at the observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any player winning. Each market's Yes price is shown alongside its No price, so the two sides of a single market together describe that one contract. The Yes prices in this sample range from 0.015 to 0.27 across the included players. The sample covers only part of the event. The provider's event contains 49 markets, and 12 are included here, ranked by highest Yes price. Players outside the included group are not shown, and their absence should not be read as a lower price. Volume figures are not included here, and volume does not measure liquidity or the number of traders.
Historical Context
The AP NFL Most Valuable Player award is presented annually by the Associated Press to a player judged most valuable in that year's regular season [3]. The source describes it as the de facto official NFL MVP award. Since 2012, the NFL has held an annual NFL Honors ceremony to recognize the AP MVP winner along with other AP awards [3]. The Super Bowl Most Valuable Player is a separate award for the NFL championship game. It is chosen by a panel of 16 football writers and broadcasters, with media ballots counting for 80 percent of the tally and viewer votes for 20 percent, and fan voting has been included since Super Bowl XXXV in 2001 [2]. This contract concerns the regular-season AP award, not the Super Bowl award [1][3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: whether the named player wins the 2026-27 regular-season AP MVP award [1]. Because the AP award is treated as the leading NFL MVP honor, markets on it reflect expectations about which players might be selected for that recognition [3]. Traders and readers can use the Yes and No prices to see how the market currently values each named player's chance of resolving Yes, while remembering that the prices are only snapshots and not verified probabilities. The market rules also specify that a market closes early if the award event occurs [1]. That means the resolution of a given market depends on the award outcome defined by the provider rules, not on the displayed end date.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 09:10 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which award does this contract track?
It tracks the Pro Football AP Regular Season MVP for the 2026-27 season. A market resolves to Yes if the named player wins that award [1]. The Super Bowl MVP is a different award [2].
Does the displayed end date mean the award will be announced then?
No. The provider's listing shows an end time of 2028-02-12 for these markets, but the rules as supplied do not state that an award announcement will occur on that date. The rules say the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Does a price of 0.27 mean a 27 percent chance?
The displayed price is a snapshot from the provider's data and is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1]. It shows where the Yes side was priced at the observation time, and it should not be treated as a confirmed forecast.
Are all possible players shown?
No. The event contains 49 markets, and only 12 are included, ranked by highest Yes price [1]. Players not shown are not confirmed to have lower prices.
Is Kalshi affiliated with the league?
The provider states that it is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the governing league [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
1
Same-question pairs
27
Largest saved gap: 2.1 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
