Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?

Total Volume

$1.92K

Events

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Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?

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$1.92K

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.92K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.92K

100%

Kalshi leads

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5 markets tracked

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)	Kalshi	62%
Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (China)	Kalshi	27%
Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (France)	Kalshi	6%
Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United Arab Emirates)	Kalshi	5%
Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (South Korea)	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

62%

Top Probability

$1.92K

Volume

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About This Event

Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET If an AI lab based X has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET

If an AI lab based X has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If an AI lab based in the United States has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $320
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (South Korea)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $398
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (France)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $398
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (China)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $402
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United Arab Emirates)
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2030): Vol $398
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?

Volume$1.92K

Markets5

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KALSHI

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)

If an AI lab based in the United States has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under t

KALSHI

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (China)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (China)

If an AI lab based in China has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback

KALSHI

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (France)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.5¢No 94.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (France)

If an AI lab based in France has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback

KALSHI

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United Arab Emirates)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United Arab Emirates)

If an AI lab based in the United Arab Emirates has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall

KALSHI

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (South Korea)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (South Korea)

If an AI lab based in South Korea has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fal

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/b-TxEa" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?"></iframe>

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Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?

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Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)

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Events (1)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?

Markets (5)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (China)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (China)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (France)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (France)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United Arab Emirates)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United Arab Emirates)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (South Korea)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (South Korea)

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Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade?

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United States)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (China)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (China)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (France)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (France)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United Arab Emirates)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (United Arab Emirates)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (South Korea)

Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? (South Korea)

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