Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent

Total Volume

$13.37

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IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent

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$13.37

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $13.37

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $13.37

100%

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10 markets tracked

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?	Kalshi	96%
Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?	Kalshi	91%
Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?	Kalshi	77%
Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?	Kalshi	61%
Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?	Kalshi	44%
Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?	Kalshi	29%
Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?	Kalshi	18%
Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?	Kalshi	10%
Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?	Kalshi	5%
Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$13.37

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Lupe Castillo If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Lupe Castillo ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Lupe Castillo

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Lupe Castillo ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Lupe Castillo ÷ total valid votes cast) ×"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 36% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 34% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $8
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent

Volume$13.37

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KALSHI

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Lupe Castillo ÷ total valid votes cast) ×

KALSHI

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 22% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Lupe Castillo ÷ total valid votes cast) ×

KALSHI

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.5¢No 22.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 24% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Lupe Castillo ÷ total valid votes cast) ×

KALSHI

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 26% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Lupe Castillo ÷ total valid votes cast) ×

KALSHI

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 44.0¢No 56.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Lupe Castillo in the 2026 IL-04 House election is 28% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Lupe Castillo ÷ total valid votes cast) ×

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/bkGCvS" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent"></iframe>

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IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent

IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent

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Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

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Events (1)

IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent

Markets (10)

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

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Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

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IL-04 House election: Lupe Castillo vote percent

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

Will Lupe Castillo receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 IL-04 House election?

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