BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract is titled "BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET" on Polymarket [1]. According to the saved excerpt, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt states that the market concerns that feed "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-26T13:40:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time. It is not evidence that the price window has been observed or that the market has resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-25T15:44:14.189Z [1]. At the observation time, the market was listed with status active, an Up price of 0.505, and a Down price of 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values for that moment only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be read as live prices. The two saved prices sum to 1.00, but the evidence does not explain why they differ by 0.010.
The sample covers one market from one event on one platform. Coverage shows one total market, one included, and partialSample set to false [1]. The sampling note says all saved markets for this event are included, but this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome. No other platforms or BNB contracts appear in this evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Volume is not supplied, so nothing here indicates liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the BNB price at the start of the window, the TWAP during the window, or the final result. It also contains no later snapshots, so the current status and price are unknown. Readers should check the time zones: the title states the window in Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC [1]. Other BNB contracts with different windows or wording may resolve differently, so their prices should not be compared as if they asked the same question.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto contract on the price of BNB, a token, measured in US dollars. The contract is titled "BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET" and is listed in the crypto category on Polymarket [1]. It asks whether BNB's price moves up or down over a five-minute window. The listed end time is 2026-10-26T13:40:00Z [1]. The resolution rule compares two values. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The TWAP is an average across the window, not the price at a single moment, so a contract can resolve differently from what the price looks like at the end of the window. The source of the price is specified in the rules. The market uses the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Prices on other exchanges or in other spot markets therefore do not decide this contract under its stated rules. At the time of the saved snapshot, observed at 2026-10-25T15:00:05Z, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the outcome. The market's status in the saved record was "active" [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's average price over a short window, relative to the price at the window's start, using Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. Because the outcome depends on a time-weighted average and a specific data stream, the contract's rules determine the result, not general market commentary or prices on other venues [1]. Its price reflects how participants value the two outcomes at a particular moment, which is different from a confirmed forecast.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" outcome mean for this contract?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price data decides the result?
The rules specify the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink and state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does this contract end?
The listed end time in the saved record is 2026-10-26T13:40:00Z [1].
Do the prices shown mean the outcome is likely?
The saved prices were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down at the observation time [1]. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a confirmed likelihood.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.