Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The snapshot covers one Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET" [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The contract depends on a specific data source. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with a different Bitcoin contract should check whether that contract uses the same source, window, and comparison rule, since wording differences can change what is being measured.
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T00:40:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, so the two timestamps describe the same closing point in different notations. This listed close time is when the contract window ends, not when the outcome has been determined.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z, and the application retrieved the source at 2026-10-26T03:18:12.844Z [1]. These are historical capture times. The provider status was "active" when retrieved [1], so the saved data describes that moment only.
The saved prices are "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is 0.010, which describes the quoted snapshot only. Nothing in this evidence explains why the prices stood where they did, and the sample does not show how many traders held either position.
The sample includes one market out of one saved market for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. Because only this single contract is included, there is no comparison field here to rank, and no other platform's contract should be averaged with these prices.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the outcome. It also does not show whether the contract has since closed, traded, or resolved, because the snapshot is from 2026-10-26 at 03:00 UTC and the listed end time has not been reached in that snapshot. Any reading of the prices should be limited to that observation time.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Bitcoin price contract listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET." The contract is categorized as crypto and asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over one five-minute window [1]. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The contract is therefore about a relative change in an averaged price, not a comparison with a spot price at a single moment. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, with a 60-second TWAP stream named in the source's link [1]. The source states that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader should therefore check the Chainlink stream, rather than an exchange chart, when trying to understand how this contract is scored. The listed end time is 2026-10-27T00:40:00Z, which corresponds to the end of the 8:35 PM to 8:40 PM ET window on October 26 [1]. That end time is the contract's closing time. It is not a record that the contract has been resolved, and the entry does not state a resolution result.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BTC/USD time-weighted average price over the 8:35 PM to 8:40 PM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single trade, the result depends on how the price moved during the interval, not only on where it ended. The rule also names one data feed as the authority, so the outcome is tied to that feed's data rather than to other exchanges or spot markets [1]. The prices shown for the two outcomes are snapshots at the time the data was observed. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of an outcome [1]. Because the saved data includes only this single market for this event, the entry does not describe any wider set of outcomes.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract ask?
It asks whether the Chainlink BTC/USD time-weighted average price over the 8:35 PM to 8:40 PM ET window on October 26 is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. If it is, the market resolves to "Up"; otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source determines the outcome?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream. The source states that other sources or spot markets are not the basis for the market [1].
When does the contract close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T00:40:00Z, which matches the end of the 8:35 PM to 8:40 PM ET window [1]. The listed end time does not by itself show that the market has resolved.
Does a price near 50 cents mean the outcome is 50 percent likely?
No. The displayed prices are snapshots from the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.