This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Khamenei # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Name: Khamenei # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?
End: 2026-05-05T16:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.77K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Khamenei # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Vol

$2.77K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.77K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.77K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	69%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	16%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	13%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	3%
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	2%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

69%

Top Probability

$2.77K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 28, 12:00 PM ET and May 5, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resol

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Khamenei # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 5, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 28, 12:00 PM ET and May 5, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resol

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 28, 12:00 PM ET and May 5, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.51)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $116
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $130
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $457
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $108
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $111
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $163
  DATA: [Yes: 12.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.2% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $126
  DATA: [Yes: 10.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.7% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $243
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $188
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $220
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $629
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $160
  DATA: [Yes: 9.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics