Wisconsin Governor Election Margin of Victory
PM $26.4K
1
10
Wisconsin Governor Election Margin of Victory
PM $26.4K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Crowley 6-9% at 22.5%.
Polymarket
- Crowley 6-9%22.5%
- Crowley 3-6%21%
- Crowley 0-3%17%
- Tiffany 0-3%14%
- Crowley 9-12%9.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $26.4K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks about the margin of victory in the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. The contract defines the margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket is a separate contract. Some ask whether the Democratic Party candidate wins by a given range, and others ask the same about the Republican Party candidate. Independent candidates do not count as either party's option [1].
The rules also set several edge cases. A result that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties follow a ballot-listed last name rule, and the market resolves to "Other" if the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. That deadline is a rule in the contract text, not an announced event date. The listed end time for these contracts is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:21:54.970Z [1]. These are historical records of a saved observation, not live quotes. The sample includes all 10 saved markets for this event, and the coverage record shows no partial sample [1].
The highest listed Yes price is 0.21 for the Democratic 3%-6% bracket, followed by 0.19 for the Democratic 6%-9% bracket [1]. The Republican 9%-12% and 12% or more brackets show Yes prices of 0.001 and 0.0005 [1]. Read these as snapshot prices for each contract on its own. The Yes prices across all 10 brackets sum to 0.951 in this snapshot, so they should not be treated as a complete probability distribution. Comparing brackets with different wording or from different providers would also be misleading, since this event comes from a single provider.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot cannot show current prices, executable prices, or the reasons prices sit where they do. The sample warning states that "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Any unlisted bracket should not be assumed to have a lower price. Volume is not included in this evidence, so it cannot indicate liquidity or the number of traders. Resolution will depend on the certified official count described in the rules [1], and the evidence contains no information about that outcome.
References
- Polymarket: Wisconsin Governor Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers the Wisconsin Governor Election Margin of Victory contract on Polymarket, which concerns the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. The election is listed as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1], and Wikipedia describes it as "scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Wisconsin" [2]. The contract does not ask who wins. It asks how large the gap between the top two candidates will be. The contract defines the "margin of victory" as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the calculation uses the top two shares, the result is a difference in percentage points, and the direction of the win does not change the bracket that applies. Each market in the event is a bracket of that margin, labeled for either the Democratic or the Republican Party candidate. The saved event includes ten brackets: Democratic candidate wins by 0% to 3%, 3% to 6%, 6% to 9%, 9% to 12%, or 12% or more, and Republican candidate wins by the same ranges [1]. The contract says that "candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for 'Democrat' and 'Republican,' respectively," and that independent candidates "will not represent options for either party" [1]. Each market is a yes or no contract on one bracket, so a trader buying the "Yes" side on one bracket is taking a position only on that range. Prices shown for these brackets are snapshots from the observation time and are not executable quotes. A snapshot shows where the market stood at one moment, and it does not show the current state of the race.
Historical Context
Wikipedia's summary of the 2026 race, as retrieved for this entry, reports that the Democratic and Republican nominees are David Crowley and Tom Tiffany, and that the incumbent Democrat, Tony Evers, declined to seek a third term [2]. Crowley's earlier service in the Wisconsin State Assembly from 2017 to 2020 and his tenure as Milwaukee County executive beginning in 2020 are described in his Wikipedia biography [3]. These sources describe the background of the race and its candidates. They do not report on the campaign's current standing.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the victory margin between the top two candidates, rather than the winner. This makes it a question about how competitive the final result will be. The contract also sets out the rules that determine how the margin is calculated and which bracket applies. The contract resolves on the official vote count once the count has been made official [1]. If a recount is started before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount finishes and the vote is made official [1]. The primary source for the result is the official results published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election, although "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed end time in the provider's data and is not an announced election or certification date. The contract also states that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other" [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this contract predict who will win the Wisconsin governor race?
No. The contract measures the "margin of victory," defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates [1]. Each bracket is a range of that margin for either the Democratic or the Republican candidate [1].
What happens if a party's nominee is replaced before election day?
The contract states that if a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1].
How are independent candidates treated?
The contract says independent candidates will not represent options for either party [1]. It also defines the percentages using the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1], so the calculation is based on the total valid vote rather than on the Democratic and Republican candidates alone.
What happens if a result falls exactly between two brackets?
The contract says that "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
The contract states that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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