Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The two contracts in this snapshot ask which party wins the MO-07 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The Republican Party contract and the Democratic Party contract are separate markets under one Polymarket event. Under the stated rules, the market resolves "according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat" [1]. A candidate's party is set by ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation when the House elections are conclusively called. A candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation is assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus [1].

The rules also say resolution follows "a consensus of credible reporting," and that if there is ambiguity, resolution uses "the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission" [1]. The source states that the midterm elections "will take place on November 3, 2026" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a provider field, not a stated resolution announcement.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-24T16:38:19.844Z [1]. These are the times to use when reading the prices below. They describe that saved snapshot only.

• Republican Party contract: Yes at 0.9775, No at 0.0225 [1].
• Democratic Party contract: Yes at 0.026, No at 0.974 [1].

The saved sample includes both markets for this event, with no partial sampling flag [1]. The Republican Yes price is well above the Democratic Yes price in this snapshot. These are quoted prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The supplied evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it cannot show how liquid either contract is or how many participants hold a view.

What remains uncertain

The sample warning states that the saved markets are all included for this event, but "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The supplied evidence does not show whether other outcomes exist for this seat, so no conclusion about omitted outcomes should be drawn from these two prices.

The evidence does not explain why either price is where it is, and it contains no recent reporting on the race. Because the election has not yet occurred in the source's terms, the final outcome, the resolution date, and the official result are not in the evidence.

References

1. Polymarket: MO-07 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T15:00:06.814Z.