Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event is a set of five Polymarket binary contracts on the number of rushing yards Kyren Williams records in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. Each contract asks whether his total will reach a listed threshold: 599.5, 799.5, 999.5, 1,199.5, or 1,399.5 yards [1]. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Yes" if the number of rushing yards Kyren Williams records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds the listed number" [1].

The rules also set outcomes for edge cases. If Williams does not play "for any reason," the market resolves to "No" [1]. If the season is cancelled, or postponed past the stated cutoff, or if the yardage "cannot be determined," the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That date is the contract's close time, not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T06:16:30.237Z [1]. They describe that snapshot only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The Yes prices fall as the threshold rises: 0.952 for 599.5, 0.69 for 799.5, 0.54 for 1,199.5, 0.495 for 999.5, and 0.14 for 1,399.5 [1]. Note that the saved list is ordered by Yes price, not by threshold, so the 1,199.5 contract appears above the 999.5 contract. Each contract is a separate question, so the thresholds should be read individually rather than as a single distribution.

The sample covers all five markets saved for this provider event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. Because the sample is complete for this event, no outcome has been omitted. The provider notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Volume is not included in this summary, and a price does not indicate how many traders hold a position.

Because each contract has different wording only in its threshold, comparing a contract with another platform's contract would require checking rules, close times, and edge-case terms first. Prices that differ across contracts do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is. It also contains no information on Williams's current health, roster status, or recent performance, and no reporting beyond the contract rules. The 50-50 and "No" edge-case provisions could change the outcome in unusual circumstances, and the evidence does not say how likely those circumstances are. This snapshot will not reflect later price changes, so readers should check a current source before relying on any price.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Kyren Williams 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z.