Solana Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers a five-minute window in the Solana price. The saved rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The title places that window between 10:45AM and 10:50AM ET on October 30 [1].
The rules name a specific source. The resolution source is "the SOL/USD TWAP data stream" from Chainlink, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] A contract on a different oracle, a spot exchange, or a different averaging window could resolve differently, so comparisons should begin with these rule differences.
The listed end time is 2026-10-30T14:50:00.000Z [1]. A listed end time is the scheduled close recorded by the provider. It is not evidence of actual resolution, and the saved evidence does not show a resolved outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-29T19:31:02.135Z [1]. These are the only price-timing facts in the evidence. The prices below describe that observation, not live conditions when you read this.
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000 in this record, which reflects a two-outcome pair. The evidence includes no volume, depth, or trader count, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each side.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. The Up and Down prices can therefore be read together as the complete pair for this saved event. Because the sample is so narrow, the record cannot be used to compare this contract with other Solana windows or with contracts on other platforms.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and this note does not infer a cause. It also does not show whether the market has since moved, closed, or resolved. The saved provider status was "active" at retrieval [1], but no later status is available.
Do not treat a small gap between Up and Down as an arbitrage signal. Different contracts with different rules, windows, or oracles are not directly comparable merely because their prices differ.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window directional market on the price of Solana (SOL) in US dollars. It is titled "Solana Up or Down - October 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET" and is listed on Polymarket [1]. The rule is based on a time-weighted average price (TWAP), not a single trade. The contract resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream, described as a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price according to this Chainlink data stream and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. Anyone reading a price for SOL elsewhere should therefore note that it does not decide this contract under the stated rules. The listed end time is 2026-10-30T14:50:00.000Z, which corresponds to the end of the time range in the title [1]. This is a contract closing time written in the rules. It does not describe an announced event, and it is not the time the market was resolved. At the time of the provider observation, the listing status was active [1]. The saved event contains two outcomes, Up and Down. Their relative prices are shown in the dated snapshot rather than here, and a snapshot is not an executable quote or a verified probability.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average Chainlink SOL/USD price over a fixed short window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses a TWAP, the outcome depends on the average across the window rather than on the price at one moment, and the comparison is with the starting price. The rules also limit the measurement to one named data stream, so the contract reflects that feed's data as defined by the listing [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price data is used to settle the contract?
The resolution source is Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does the measurement window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-30T14:50:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's stated closing time, not an announced event.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.