Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the price of Hyperliquid over a five-minute window, titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET" [1]. According to the saved rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of the specified range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
Readers comparing contracts should check the wording closely. A market that uses a Chainlink TWAP over a set window can differ from one that compares a single spot price at a fixed time, even when both refer to the same asset. The listed end time in the saved record is 2026-11-01T22:40:00.000Z [1]. The title's Eastern Time window and this UTC end time are both listed in the evidence, but this record does not separately establish how they map to each other, so readers should confirm that mapping before relying on it.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is from 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-01T10:56:09.370Z [1]. The prices below are from the earlier observation, not live quotes. At that observation, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
The coverage record lists one market for this event, and it is not a partial sample [1]. Because the saved record contains both outcomes, there is no omitted outcome to compare against. The small gap between the two prices is a fact about that snapshot only. The evidence does not explain why the prices were where they were, and it does not show how many traders held either position. Trading volume is not included in the interpretation here because volume does not measure liquidity or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the prices at the time you are reading this, and any later movement is unknown. It also does not show the TWAP value that will be recorded or how the outcome will be determined, beyond the stated rule. Provider status in the record is "active," but that describes the saved record at retrieval, not a guarantee about future status [1].
Comparing this contract with a different contract, on another platform or with different rules or close times, would not establish an arbitrage opportunity, because the wording, resolution source, and window may differ.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-interval direction contract on Polymarket. It asks whether the price of HYPE/USD, measured as a time-weighted average price (TWAP) generated by Chainlink, will be higher or lower over a stated window. The title names that window as November 1, 5:35PM to 5:40PM ET [1]. The contract lists two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. The rule compares the TWAP over the window with the price at the beginning of that window. If the TWAP is greater than or equal to the starting price, the market resolves to "Up". Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink [1]. The source states that the market concerns that Chainlink feed and not any other sources or spot markets [1]. The provider record gives a listed end time of 22:40 UTC on November 1, 2026 [1]. That is the scheduled close recorded for the contract. It is not a report of what happened in the market, and it is not a result. The provider status in the saved record is active [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of HYPE/USD over a very short window, using a time-weighted average rather than a single trade price [1]. Because the average is taken over the time range in the title, the result depends on the whole window and not only on its final moment [1]. Comparing that average with the price at the start of the window defines the outcome as either "Up" or "Down" [1]. The choice of data source also matters. The contract is tied to one Chainlink data stream, so the rules say that other sources and spot markets do not decide the result [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should keep in mind that it reflects the market's trading at a specific moment and is not an executable quote. Prices shown here are snapshots.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the market to resolve to Up?
The market resolves to Up if the TWAP of the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What happens if the TWAP is below the starting price?
In that case the market resolves to Down [1].
Which price feed decides the outcome?
The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, available through the Chainlink data streams page named in the rules [1]. The rules say the market is about that feed and not any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does this contract close?
The provider record lists an end time of 22:40 UTC on November 1, 2026 [1]. The listed time is the scheduled end recorded for the contract and does not confirm a resolved result.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.