Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
PM $9.51
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1
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
PM $9.51
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1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $9.51
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET" [1]. The provider's rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The stated resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T04:00:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time in the provider data, not a confirmed resolution. The rules do not describe how or when a result will be published beyond the price comparison above.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:15:23.641Z [1]. The observation is the only price evidence, so it should be read as a point in time, not a live figure. At the time of observation, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The saved record lists the market status as active at retrieval [1]. The sample includes one market from one event, and the coverage record shows no omitted markets for this event [1]. Because only one contract is present, there is no cross-platform or cross-contract comparison in this evidence. The saved prices do not show why the market is priced this way, and the evidence does not include volume or trader counts.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show prices after the observation time, so it cannot say where the market stands now. It also does not include the actual TWAP values for the interval, the beginning-of-range price, or the eventual resolution. A reader cannot infer the outcome from the snapshot prices.
Any comparison with other Bitcoin contracts would need to match the rule wording, time window, data source, and closing time. Differences in these terms can change what a contract measures, so different prices across contracts should not be treated as an opportunity without that review.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a single crypto contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET" on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a fixed window, and it is framed around the time-weighted average price rather than a single moment's price. According to the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The contract names a specific measurement source. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second averaging window [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to this Chainlink TWAP data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. A trader reading the contract therefore needs to understand that the outcome depends on this data stream, which may differ from prices shown on exchanges or other trackers. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-16T04:00:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's listed closing time. It is separate from the time the outcome is actually determined, and the available evidence does not show when or how the market was resolved. At the time the provider record was observed, the market's status was active [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a defined window, using a time-weighted average from one named data stream. Because the rules compare the average over the window with the price at the window's start, the outcome can differ from a comparison of the start and end prices alone [1]. Reading the resolution source and averaging method is necessary to understand what a given Up or Down price is tied to [1]. The displayed prices are only snapshots of the market at a point in time, and they do not establish how likely either outcome is.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves to Up or Down?
The market resolves to Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which data source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second window. The rules say other sources and spot markets are not used [1].
Is a listed end time the same as the time the market resolves?
No. The listed end time is 2026-10-16T04:00:00.000Z [1]. The available evidence does not show the actual resolution time or outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
