This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

CA-48 Primary Winners

Name: CA-48 Primary Winners
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.41K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

CA-48 Primary Winners

Vol

$1.41K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.41K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.41K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will Jim Desmond advance from the CA-48 primary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jim Desmond advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	92%
Will Ammar Campa-Najjar advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	69%
Will Marni von Wilpert advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	50%
Will Brandon Riker advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	14%
Will Abel Chavez advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	10%
Will Eric Shaw advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	7%
Will Luis Reyna advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	7%
Will Ferguson Porter advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	7%
Will Kevin O'Neil advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	7%
Will Stephen Clemons advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	7%
Will Mike Schaefer advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	7%
Will Corinna Contreras advance from the CA-48 primary election?	Poly	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$1.41K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 48th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CA-48 Primary Winners
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 2, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 48th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 48th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwis"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.16)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Abel Chavez advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $78
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Brandon Riker advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $431
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Eric Shaw advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jim Desmond advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $91
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Luis Reyna advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Mike Schaefer advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Ammar Campa-Najjar advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $514
  DATA: [Yes: 68.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Corinna Contreras advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ferguson Porter advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $22
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Kevin O'Neil advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $22
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Marni von Wilpert advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $247
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Stephen Clemons advance from the CA-48 primary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 2, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics