Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The contract tracks the margin of victory in the 2026 MI-07 House election, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket asks whether the Democratic or Republican candidate wins by a stated range, such as "by 3%-6%" or "by 12% or more" [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1].

The wording has several rules that affect how a bracket resolves. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves "to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Ties follow a specific tiebreak rule based on ballot-listed last names [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. A recount initiated before certification keeps the market open until it is completed [1]. The listed end time in the saved data is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].

Reading the snapshot

The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:57:53.802Z [1]. These are records of a past observation, not live prices.

The sample includes all ten saved brackets from one Polymarket event, and the coverage record marks it as complete with no partial sample [1]. Within this event, the highest Yes price is 0.255 for the Democratic 3%-6% bracket, and the lowest is 0.0245 for the Republican 9%-12% bracket [1]. The Yes prices across all ten brackets sum to roughly 1.12, so they should not be read as a single probability distribution. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is. It also does not establish that the ten brackets cover every possible result, since the source notes that a sample warning applies and that providers do not necessarily list every real-world outcome [1]. The source states the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1], but the evidence contains no confirmed certification date. Because this snapshot predates the listed end time, later prices, rule updates, or candidate replacements could change the picture. The contracts cannot be compared with markets on other platforms without matching the wording, end times, and resolution rules.

References

1. Polymarket: MI-07 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.