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New York's 18th District margin of victory

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New York's 18th District margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?	Kalshi	87%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?	Kalshi	77%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?	Kalshi	67%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?	Kalshi	58%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?	Kalshi	48%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 22 percentage points?	Kalshi	38%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 25 percentage points?	Kalshi	30%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 28 percentage points?	Kalshi	20%
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 31 percentage points?	Kalshi	10%

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87%

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About This Event

New York's 18th District If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 18th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New York's 18th District margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** New York's 18th District

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 18th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 18th District by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vote p"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 31 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 28 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 25 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 22 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

New York's 18th District margin of victory

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.0¢No 13.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 18th District by 7 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote p

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 18th District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 18th District by 13 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 58.0¢No 42.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 18th District by 16 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.0¢No 52.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 18th District by 19 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote

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New York's 18th District margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?

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Events (1)

New York's 18th District margin of victory

Markets (9)

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?

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Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

New York's 18th District margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 7 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 13 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 16 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 18th District House election be at least 19 percentage points?

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