Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Diesel price at year-end 2026

Total Volume

$33.98K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Diesel price at year-end 2026

Vol

$33.98K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $33.98K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $33.98K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?	Kalshi	99%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.20?	Kalshi	96%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.40?	Kalshi	94%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.80?	Kalshi	92%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.60?	Kalshi	90%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $5.20?	Kalshi	84%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $5.00?	Kalshi	84%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $5.40?	Kalshi	74%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $5.60?	Kalshi	68%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $5.80?	Kalshi	61%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $6.00?	Kalshi	42%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $6.20?	Kalshi	40%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $6.40?	Kalshi	31%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $6.60?	Kalshi	30%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $6.80?	Kalshi	25%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $7.00?	Kalshi	17%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $7.20?	Kalshi	12%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $7.60?	Kalshi	11%
Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $7.40?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$33.98K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

December 31, 2026 If the AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Diesel price at year-end 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** December 31, 2026

If the AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 is above $7.60, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $34.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $7.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $7.40?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $7.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $7.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $6.80?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $6.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $6.40?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $6.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $6.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $5.80?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $5.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $5.40?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $926
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $5.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $5.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.80?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.60?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $805
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.40?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.20?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $133
  DATA: [Yes: 98.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Diesel price at year-end 2026

Volume$33.98K

Markets19

19 of 19

Sort:

KALSHI

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?

If the AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 is above $4.00, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.20?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.20?

If the AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 is above $4.20, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.40?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 93.5¢No 6.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.40?

If the AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 is above $4.40, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.80?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.80?

If the AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 is above $4.80, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.60?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.60?

If the AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 is above $4.60, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

55¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/dDF5bD" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Diesel price at year-end 2026"></iframe>

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Diesel price at year-end 2026

Diesel price at year-end 2026

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Diesel price at year-end 2026

Markets (19)

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.20?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.20?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.40?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.40?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.80?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.80?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.60?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.60?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Diesel price at year-end 2026

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.00?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.20?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.20?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.40?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.40?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.80?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.80?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.60?

Will AAA national average price for diesel on December 31, 2026 be above $4.60?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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