Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Anthropic lab leak by...?

Name: Anthropic lab leak by...?
End: 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$151.32K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Anthropic lab leak by...?

Vol

$151.32K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $151.32K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $151.32K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?	Poly	10%
Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

10%

Top Probability

$151.32K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is pos

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Anthropic lab leak by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jul 1, 2027 (263 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required.

Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is pos

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Confirmation that the pathogen esca"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $151.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $37.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $29.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 2. Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $121.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech