Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

California's 37th District margin of victory

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California's 37th District margin of victory

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10 markets tracked

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?	Kalshi	90%
Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 10 percentage points?	Kalshi	86%
Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 15 percentage points?	Kalshi	78%
Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 20 percentage points?	Kalshi	68%
Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 25 percentage points?	Kalshi	54%
Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 30 percentage points?	Kalshi	41%
Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 35 percentage points?	Kalshi	27%
Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 40 percentage points?	Kalshi	16%
Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 45 percentage points?	Kalshi	8%
Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 50 percentage points?	Kalshi	5%

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90%

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$0.00

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About This Event

In 2026 If Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 37th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Sydney Kamlager-Dove minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Sydney Kamlager-Dove if Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins, or the candidat

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California's 37th District margin of victory
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 37th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Sydney Kamlager-Dove minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Sydney Kamlager-Dove if Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins, or the candidat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives  election in California's 37th District by 50 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.

For percentage points: the vo"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 50 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.1% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 45 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.1% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 40 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 35 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 30 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 25 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 20 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 15 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 10 percentage points?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

California's 37th District margin of victory

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.0¢No 10.1¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?

If Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 37th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vot

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 10 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.8¢No 14.2¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 10 percentage points?

If Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 37th District by 10 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vo

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 15 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 78.5¢No 21.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 15 percentage points?

If Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 37th District by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vo

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 20 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 67.5¢No 32.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 20 percentage points?

If Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 37th District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vo

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 25 percentage points?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.5¢No 45.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 25 percentage points?

If Sydney Kamlager-Dove wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 37th District by 25 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vo

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California's 37th District margin of victory

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Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?

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Events (1)

California's 37th District margin of victory

Markets (10)

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 25 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 25 percentage points?

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Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?

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California's 37th District margin of victory

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 5 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 10 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 15 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 20 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 25 percentage points?

Will the margin of victory for Sydney Kamlager-Dove in CA-37 be at least 25 percentage points?

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